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Uranium and control of strait of Hormuz key as talks to end US-Iran war continue

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Donald Trump

Marco Rubio

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Esmaeil Baghaei

Rafael Mariano Grossi

John Ratcliffe

Tulsi Gabbard

Nicholas L. Miller

Spencer Faragasso

Darya Dolzikova

Andrea Stricker

Sean Parnell

David Albright

Israel Atomic Energy Commission

"If it [the stockpile of enriched uranium] is intact and Iran is able to keep it that way, they could potentially use it in a new covert enrichment facility to produce material for several nuclear weapons in a matter of months."

"I can say to the American people with great confidence that they [Iranians] are much further away from a nuclear program today than they were 24 hours ago."

"Our nuclear installations have been badly damaged, that's for sure."

"Israel's and U.S. attacks have effectively destroyed Iran's centrifuge enrichment program."

"The American strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities, combined with Israeli strikes on other elements of Iran's military nuclear program, has set back Iran's ability to develop nuclear weapons by many years."

"Iran's key nuclear enrichment facilities have been completely and totally obliterated."

Have US Strikes Set Back Iran's Nuclear Program?

Alex Vatanka

Mona Yacoubian

Daniel Byman

Polymarket

Kalshi

J.P. Morgan

Mossad Commentary

Neil Stone

Suzanne Maloney

Arash Azizi

Al Jazeera Centre for Studies

Victor Davis Hanson

Witold Repetowicz

Mehdi Parpanchi

Mohammed M. Hafez

Stimson Center

"Current and former U.S. officials say they see little sign, at least so far, of a mass popular uprising in Iran or of significant fissures within the government or security forces that will result in a new regime."

"There is an 11% chance that the Iranian government will lose power before 2027."

"There is an 8.9% chance that the Iranian regime will collapse and Reza Pahlavi will become head of state before January 1, 2027."

"There is an 19% chance that the Iranian regime will fall before 2027."

"Regime change is possible but unlikely."

"In any case, the Islamic Republic faces a significant challenge, and its long-term survival is not assured."

“The regime cannot continue that long.”

"Regime collapse or irreversible degradation is more likely than regime survival (65% likelihood)."

"If Trump sees it through, and I think he will, I think they're [going to] fall pretty soon, in two, three, four weeks."

"I think the regime will collapse before Iranian New Year (Nowruz), which is March 20th."

Will the Islamic Republic of Iran Experience Regime Collapse by 2027?

A Qatari negotiating team arrived in Tehran on Friday in coordination with the U.S. to help secure a deal ending the war with Iran, while Pakistan's top military commander, Field Marshal Asim Munir, also traveled to Tehran in a parallel mediation push.

A Qatari negotiating team arrived in Tehran on Friday in coordination with the U.S. to help secure a deal ending the war with Iran, while Pakistan's top military commander, Field Marshal Asim Munir, also traveled to Tehran in a parallel mediation push.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Friday that talks with Iran had shown "some progress" but that more work was needed, adding that Iran's plans for a tolling system in the Strait of Hormuz were "unacceptable" and "completely illegal."

Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Friday that talks with Iran had shown "some progress" but that more work was needed, adding that Iran's plans for a tolling system in the Strait of Hormuz were "unacceptable" and "completely illegal."

Iran published a map claiming regulatory control over stretches of the Strait of Hormuz that extend into UAE and Omani territorial waters, prompting Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE to warn shipping companies through the International Maritime Organization not to comply.

Iran published a map claiming regulatory control over stretches of the Strait of Hormuz that extend into UAE and Omani territorial waters, prompting Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE to warn shipping companies through the International Maritime Organization not to comply.

The U.S. military reportedly fired more than 200 THAAD interceptors — roughly half its total inventory — along with over 100 ship-based interceptors to defend Israel during the conflict, while Israel fired fewer than 100 Arrow interceptors and around 90 David's Sling interceptors.

The U.S. military reportedly fired more than 200 THAAD interceptors — roughly half its total inventory — along with over 100 ship-based interceptors to defend Israel during the conflict, while Israel fired fewer than 100 Arrow interceptors and around 90 David's Sling interceptors.

Saudi Arabia's port authority launched a new shipping service linking the ports of Jeddah, Salalah and Djibouti with a capacity of 1,730 containers, as regional states sought alternative routes while the Strait of Hormuz remained largely blocked.

Saudi Arabia's port authority launched a new shipping service linking the ports of Jeddah, Salalah and Djibouti with a capacity of 1,730 containers, as regional states sought alternative routes while the Strait of Hormuz remained largely blocked.

Iranian hackers posed as job recruiters to target software engineers at aviation and oil companies during the conflict, using fake job postings and infected video conferencing software, according to researchers at cybersecurity firm Palo Alto Networks Unit 42.

Iranian hackers posed as job recruiters to target software engineers at aviation and oil companies during the conflict, using fake job postings and infected video conferencing software, according to researchers at cybersecurity firm Palo Alto Networks Unit 42.

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Iran published a map claiming regulatory control over stretches of the Strait of Hormuz that extend into UAE and Omani territorial waters, prompting Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE to warn shipping companies through the IMO not to comply.

Iran published a map claiming regulatory control over stretches of the Strait of Hormuz that extend into UAE and Omani territorial waters, prompting Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE to warn shipping companies through the IMO not to comply.

The U.S. military fired more than 200 THAAD interceptors — roughly half its total inventory — along with over 100 ship-based interceptors to defend Israel during the conflict, while Israel fired fewer than 100 Arrow interceptors and around 90 David's Sling interceptors.

The U.S. military fired more than 200 THAAD interceptors — roughly half its total inventory — along with over 100 ship-based interceptors to defend Israel during the conflict, while Israel fired fewer than 100 Arrow interceptors and around 90 David's Sling interceptors.

Iran's attempt to impose tolls on the Strait of Hormuz is flat-out illegal and the entire world agrees. Pakistan's top military commander heading to Tehran signals a real push to lock in a deal that ends the war and puts Iran's nuclear program on the table. Any agreement has to address Iran's enriched uranium stockpiles and shut down this Hormuz shakedown scheme for good.

Iran's attempt to impose tolls on the Strait of Hormuz is flat-out illegal and the entire world agrees. Pakistan's top military commander heading to Tehran signals a real push to lock in a deal that ends the war and puts Iran's nuclear program on the table. Any agreement has to address Iran's enriched uranium stockpiles and shut down this Hormuz shakedown scheme for good.

The US burned through half its THAAD stockpile defending Israel while Iran still holds 70 percent of its prewar missile arsenal and keeps the Strait of Hormuz locked down, spiking global oil prices past $105. Saudi Arabia is already building Red Sea shipping routes to work around the blockade because the war's economic damage is undeniable. Restarting this fight with depleted munitions and a worn-down Israeli air force would be a serious strategic blunder.

The US burned through half its THAAD stockpile defending Israel while Iran still holds 70 percent of its prewar missile arsenal and keeps the Strait of Hormuz locked down, spiking global oil prices past $105. Saudi Arabia is already building Red Sea shipping routes to work around the blockade because the war's economic damage is undeniable. Restarting this fight with depleted munitions and a worn-down Israeli air force would be a serious strategic blunder.

Iran will cease to be an Islamic Republic in July 2032, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Iran will cease to be an Islamic Republic in July 2032, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

The U.S. and Israel launched an unprovoked war against Iran, destabilizing energy markets while blaming Tehran for the fallout, further eroding Washington’s credibility in the region. Supporters argue that history shows outside powers failed to dominate Persia, while Iran kept diplomatic channels open. They say repeated U.S. ceasefire requests after setbacks exposed the limits of military threats, leaving diplomacy as the only viable path.

The U.S. and Israel launched an unprovoked war against Iran, destabilizing energy markets while blaming Tehran for the fallout, further eroding Washington’s credibility in the region. Supporters argue that history shows outside powers failed to dominate Persia, while Iran kept diplomatic channels open. They say repeated U.S. ceasefire requests after setbacks exposed the limits of military threats, leaving diplomacy as the only viable path.

Masoud Pezeshkian

The Iran War

The Israel-Iran Conflict

The US-Iran Conflict

(Photo by Morteza Nikoubazl/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

Qatar, Pakistan Push Iran Peace Talks Amid Hormuz Row

Iran

Qatar

Pakistan

United States of America

Armed conflict

The U.S. burned through half its THAAD stockpile defending Israel while Iran still holds 70 percent of its prewar missile arsenal and keeps the Strait of Hormuz locked down, spiking global oil prices past $105. Saudi Arabia is already building Red Sea shipping routes to work around the blockade because the war's economic damage is undeniable. Restarting this fight would add tremendous geopolitical instability to the world order.

The U.S. burned through half its THAAD stockpile defending Israel while Iran still holds 70 percent of its prewar missile arsenal and keeps the Strait of Hormuz locked down, spiking global oil prices past $105. Saudi Arabia is already building Red Sea shipping routes to work around the blockade because the war's economic damage is undeniable. Restarting this fight would add tremendous geopolitical instability to the world order.

Drop Site News

The U.S. and Israel launched an unprovoked war against Iran, destabilizing energy markets while blaming Tehran for the fallout, further eroding Washington's credibility in the region. History shows outside powers failed to dominate Persia, while Iran kept diplomatic channels open. Iran is a rising regional and global power.

The U.S. and Israel launched an unprovoked war against Iran, destabilizing energy markets while blaming Tehran for the fallout, further eroding Washington's credibility in the region. History shows outside powers failed to dominate Persia, while Iran kept diplomatic channels open. Iran is a rising regional and global power.

There's a 50% chance that Iran will cease to be an Islamic Republic by July 2032, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

There's a 50% chance that Iran will cease to be an Islamic Republic by July 2032, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Qatar, Pakistan Push Iran Peace Talks Amid Hormuz Row

Qatar, Pakistan Push Iran Peace Talks Amid Hormuz Row

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Qatar, Pakistan Push Iran Peace Talks Amid Hormuz Row

Qatar, Pakistan Push Iran Peace Talks Amid Hormuz Row

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