Iran's attempt to impose tolls on the Strait of Hormuz is flat-out illegal and the entire world agrees. Pakistan's top military commander heading to Tehran signals a real push to lock in a deal that ends the war and puts Iran's nuclear program on the table. Any agreement has to address Iran's enriched uranium stockpiles and shut down this Hormuz shakedown scheme for good.
The US burned through half its THAAD stockpile defending Israel while Iran still holds 70 percent of its prewar missile arsenal and keeps the Strait of Hormuz locked down, spiking global oil prices past $105. Saudi Arabia is already building Red Sea shipping routes to work around the blockade because the war's economic damage is undeniable. Restarting this fight with depleted munitions and a worn-down Israeli air force would be a serious strategic blunder.
The U.S. and Israel launched an unprovoked war against Iran, destabilizing energy markets while blaming Tehran for the fallout, further eroding Washington’s credibility in the region. Supporters argue that history shows outside powers failed to dominate Persia, while Iran kept diplomatic channels open. They say repeated U.S. ceasefire requests after setbacks exposed the limits of military threats, leaving diplomacy as the only viable path.
Iran will cease to be an Islamic Republic in July 2032, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
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