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Donald Trump

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Esmaeil Baghaei

Rafael Mariano Grossi

John Ratcliffe

Tulsi Gabbard

Nicholas L. Miller

Spencer Faragasso

Darya Dolzikova

Andrea Stricker

Sean Parnell

David Albright

Israel Atomic Energy Commission

"If it [the stockpile of enriched uranium] is intact and Iran is able to keep it that way, they could potentially use it in a new covert enrichment facility to produce material for several nuclear weapons in a matter of months."

"I can say to the American people with great confidence that they [Iranians] are much further away from a nuclear program today than they were 24 hours ago."

"Our nuclear installations have been badly damaged, that's for sure."

"Israel's and U.S. attacks have effectively destroyed Iran's centrifuge enrichment program."

"The American strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities, combined with Israeli strikes on other elements of Iran's military nuclear program, has set back Iran's ability to develop nuclear weapons by many years."

"Iran's key nuclear enrichment facilities have been completely and totally obliterated."

Have US Strikes Set Back Iran's Nuclear Program?

Alex Vatanka

Mona Yacoubian

Daniel Byman

Polymarket

Kalshi

J.P. Morgan

Mossad Commentary

Neil Stone

Suzanne Maloney

Arash Azizi

Al Jazeera Centre for Studies

Victor Davis Hanson

Witold Repetowicz

Mehdi Parpanchi

Mohammed M. Hafez

Stimson Center

"Current and former U.S. officials say they see little sign, at least so far, of a mass popular uprising in Iran or of significant fissures within the government or security forces that will result in a new regime."

"There is an 11% chance that the Iranian government will lose power before 2027."

"There is an 8.9% chance that the Iranian regime will collapse and Reza Pahlavi will become head of state before January 1, 2027."

"There is an 19% chance that the Iranian regime will fall before 2027."

"Regime change is possible but unlikely."

"In any case, the Islamic Republic faces a significant challenge, and its long-term survival is not assured."

"Regime collapse or irreversible degradation is more likely than regime survival (65% likelihood)."

“The regime cannot continue that long.”

"If Trump sees it through, and I think he will, I think they're [going to] fall pretty soon, in two, three, four weeks."

"I think the regime will collapse before Iranian New Year (Nowruz), which is March 20th."

Will the Islamic Republic of Iran Experience Regime Collapse by 2027?

A Qatari negotiating team arrived in Tehran on Friday in coordination with the U.S. to help secure a deal ending the war with Iran, while Pakistan's top military commander, Field Marshal Asim Munir, also traveled to Tehran in a parallel mediation push.

A Qatari negotiating team arrived in Tehran on Friday in coordination with the U.S. to help secure a deal ending the war with Iran, while Pakistan's top military commander, Field Marshal Asim Munir, also traveled to Tehran in a parallel mediation push.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Friday that talks with Iran had shown "some progress" but that more work was needed, adding that Iran's plans for a tolling system in the Strait of Hormuz were "unacceptable" and "completely illegal."

Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Friday that talks with Iran had shown "some progress" but that more work was needed, adding that Iran's plans for a tolling system in the Strait of Hormuz were "unacceptable" and "completely illegal."

Iran published a map claiming regulatory control over stretches of the Strait of Hormuz that extend into UAE and Omani territorial waters, prompting Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE to warn shipping companies through the IMO not to comply.

Iran published a map claiming regulatory control over stretches of the Strait of Hormuz that extend into UAE and Omani territorial waters, prompting Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE to warn shipping companies through the IMO not to comply.

The U.S. military fired more than 200 THAAD interceptors — roughly half its total inventory — along with over 100 ship-based interceptors to defend Israel during the conflict, while Israel fired fewer than 100 Arrow interceptors and around 90 David's Sling interceptors.

The U.S. military fired more than 200 THAAD interceptors — roughly half its total inventory — along with over 100 ship-based interceptors to defend Israel during the conflict, while Israel fired fewer than 100 Arrow interceptors and around 90 David's Sling interceptors.

Saudi Arabia's port authority launched a new shipping service linking the ports of Jeddah, Salalah and Djibouti with a capacity of 1,730 containers, as regional states sought alternative routes while the Strait of Hormuz remained largely blocked.

Saudi Arabia's port authority launched a new shipping service linking the ports of Jeddah, Salalah and Djibouti with a capacity of 1,730 containers, as regional states sought alternative routes while the Strait of Hormuz remained largely blocked.

Iranian hackers posed as job recruiters to target software engineers at aviation and oil companies during the conflict, using fake job postings and infected video conferencing software, according to researchers at cybersecurity firm Palo Alto Networks Unit 42. Separately, the U.S. House canceled a scheduled vote on a war powers resolution that would have limited President Trump's ability to conduct military action against Iran.

Iranian hackers posed as job recruiters to target software engineers at aviation and oil companies during the conflict, using fake job postings and infected video conferencing software, according to researchers at cybersecurity firm Palo Alto Networks Unit 42. Separately, the U.S. House canceled a scheduled vote on a war powers resolution that would have limited President Trump's ability to conduct military action against Iran.

Qatar, Pakistan Push Iran Peace Talks Amid Hormuz Row

Qatar, Pakistan Push Iran GeneralPeace UpdatesTalks (MayAmid 22)Hormuz Row

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Qatar, Pakistan Push Iran Peace Talks Amid Hormuz Row

Qatar, Pakistan Push Iran GeneralPeace UpdatesTalks (MayAmid 22)Hormuz Row

The Controversies

Miller

Vance

Baghaei

Albright

Commission

Trump

Post

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Byman

Center

Morgan

Hanson

Stone

Go Deeper

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