Al Jazeera

UK eases sanctions on Russian oil imports as fuel prices soar

Reuters

Oil Prices Ease After Trump Says Us Will End Iran War Very Quickly 2026 05 20

Defying Western pressure: Russia and China deepen economic partnership — RT Business News

Sputnik News

$164 Billion & Unstoppable: Russia-China Trade Machine Roars Past Western Sanctions

BBC News

Starmer postpones 5p fuel duty increase for rest of the year - live updates

GOV.UK

PM remarks: 1 April 2026

Keir_Starmer

10DowningStreet

KemiBadenoch

BorisJohnson

DPJHodges

Us Crude Futures Fall Over 2 Trump Says He Holds Off Scheduled Attack Iran 2026 05 18

Middle East Eye

Oil prices fall after Trump predicts quick end to Iran war

Express.co.uk

Fury Erupts Keir Starmers Decision

Guardian

Energy bills will rise by £209 in July to £1,850 a year, forecast says

European Conservative

EU Criticises U.S. Waiver on Russian Oil Sanctions

The Moscow Times

U.K. Loosens Russian Oil Sanctions Amid Soaring Energy Costs

Guidance on third country processed oil product measures

Look up considerations for trade licences under the Russia sanctions

General Trade Licence for sanctioned processed oil products

The Times

Verifying Device

UK relaxes strict sanctions on Russian crude as oil costs soar

Sky News

Uk Waters Down Russian Oil Sanctions Amid Jet Fuel Crisis Brought On By Strait Of Hormuz Closure 13546009

UK waters down new Russian oil sanctions as fuel prices rise

Metaculus

Steve Gutterman

Olga Oliker

Polymarket

Dw.Com

New Lines Institute

Foreign Policy Research Institute

Orfonline

Manifold

Lines

James Newport

Ruth Deyermond

Tatiana Stanovaya

RBC-Ukraine

"All in all, an end to the war doesn't seem to be within close range as we head into 2026."

"There will be no final settlement either now or in the foreseeable future."

"The war in Ukraine is unlikely to end in a sustainable peace in 2026."

"There is a 22% chance that there will be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2027."

"There is a 27% chance that Russia and Ukraine will have a ceasefire by the end of 2026."

"There is a 29% chance that the war in Ukraine will end by the end of 2026."

"Neither Ukraine nor Russia seems to be in a position to achieve a conclusive victory on the battlefield and, though both are under significant pressure, neither appears likely to collapse."

"A peace in 2026 is unlikely to be a true resolution. More likely is an “indefinite ceasefire” akin to the Korean Peninsula’s frozen conflict."

Will Russia and Ukraine publicly agree to a cessation of hostilities lasting more than 36 hours before January 1, 2027?

YouGov

Richard Tice

Kalshi

Ipsos 

Oddschecker

The Sun

Keir Starmer

Tom Baldwin

Scott McGlynn

Jonathan Brash

The New World

Esther Krakue

William Kedjanyi

Will Hazell

Dan Hodges

Andy Preston

"He's doomed, he will be gone - I thought he'd be gone by now. I was wrong. But I do think he's got just a few months in him."

"There is a 6% chance Keir Starmer will still be Prime Minister at the end of 2026."

"84% of bets back a 2026 exit for Keir Starmer."

"There is a 62% chance Keir Starmer will be out before Sep 1, 2026."

"There's a 32% chance Keir Starmer will remain Prime Minister in 2026."

"43% think that Keir Starmer will still be Prime Minister at the end of the year."

"These things turn around very, very fast and anyone making predictions in the current atmosphere is a fool."

"As much as MPs might want him to go, he is unlikely to acquiesce."

"There is only a 64% likelihood that he will still be in Downing Street by 31 December 2026."

“I will be sitting in this seat by 2027 and if this long-form interview works, we can try it again in January of next year as well.”

Will Keir Starmer Remain Prime Minister Through to the End of 2026?

The U.K. government issued a trade licence on May 20, 2026, permitting the import of diesel and jet fuel refined from Russian crude oil in third countries such as India and Turkey. The licence, of indefinite duration, will be placed under periodical review.

The U.K. government issued a trade licence on May 20, 2026, permitting the import of diesel and jet fuel refined from Russian crude oil in third countries such as India and Turkey. The licence, of indefinite duration, will be placed under periodical review.

This comes after U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent extended a 30-day sanctions waiver allowing the purchase of Russian seaborne oil. The EU criticised the US. .waiver extension at a G7 finance ministers meeting, with EU economy commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis saying it was not a time to "ease pressure on Russia."

This comes after U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent extended a 30-day sanctions waiver allowing the purchase of Russian seaborne oil. The EU criticised the US. .waiver extension at a G7 finance ministers meeting, with EU economy commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis saying it was not a time to "ease pressure on Russia."

The U.K. had previously announced in October 2025 that it would ban oil products derived from Russian crude oil entering via third countries, in order to restrict funds to the Kremlin. The Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air has estimated around £1.8 billion worth of such products had entered the U.K. via India and Turkey since December 2022.

The U.K. had previously announced in October 2025 that it would ban oil products derived from Russian crude oil entering via third countries, in order to restrict funds to the Kremlin. The Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air has estimated around £1.8 billion worth of such products had entered the U.K. via India and Turkey since December 2022.

The RAC has reported that the average price of a litre of petrol at U.K. forecourts stood at 158.5p on Tuesday, the highest since December 2022. Energy analyst Cornwall Insight has also forecast that the typical annual household dual-fuel bill would rise to £1,850 for the July-September period, a 13% increase from the current cap of £1,641.

The RAC has reported that the average price of a litre of petrol at U.K. forecourts stood at 158.5p on Tuesday, the highest since December 2022. Energy analyst Cornwall Insight has also forecast that the typical annual household dual-fuel bill would rise to £1,850 for the July-September period, a 13% increase from the current cap of £1,641.

Ukraine's sanctions commissioner Vladyslav Vlasiuk has said that whilst he understood the rationale behind the U.K.'s decision, he disagreed with the approach. Meanwhile, Labour's foreign affairs committee chair Dame Emily Thornberry also publicly opposed the move, saying Ukrainians had been "very let down."

Ukraine's sanctions commissioner Vladyslav Vlasiuk has said that whilst he understood the rationale behind the U.K.'s decision, he disagreed with the approach. Meanwhile, Labour's foreign affairs committee chair Dame Emily Thornberry also publicly opposed the move, saying Ukrainians had been "very let down."

Oil prices have fallen on both Tuesday and Wednesday this week following comments by U.S. President Donald Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance respectively claiming America's war with Iran would end "very quickly" and that talks between the two nations had made progress.

Oil prices have fallen on both Tuesday and Wednesday this week following comments by U.S. President Donald Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance respectively claiming America's war with Iran would end "very quickly" and that talks between the two nations had made progress.

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Metaculus #

Allowing Russian-refined oil imports while voting against North Sea drilling is a contradiction that undermines both energy independence and support for Ukraine. After 18 months of posturing against Putin, quietly issuing these licences exposes a government with no consistent principles. British consumers won't benefit — but the Kremlin sure will.

Allowing Russian-refined oil imports while voting against North Sea drilling is a contradiction that undermines both energy independence and support for Ukraine. After 18 months of posturing against Putin, quietly issuing these licences exposes a government with no consistent principles. British consumers won't benefit — but the Kremlin sure will.

Kemi Badenoch

Boris Johnson

The new Russian oil licences are part of a broader sanctions package, not a rollback of existing measures — and similar approaches are used by other countries to protect consumers. Inflation is falling, the energy price cap dropped by £117 and the fuel duty cut has been extended. This government is delivering real cost-of-living relief while keeping pressure on Russia.

The new Russian oil licences are part of a broader sanctions package, not a rollback of existing measures — and similar approaches are used by other countries to protect consumers. Inflation is falling, the energy price cap dropped by £117 and the fuel duty cut has been extended. This government is delivering real cost-of-living relief while keeping pressure on Russia.

The Iran War

The Russia-Ukraine War

UK Allows Russian-Refined Fuel Imports Amid Price Surge

Energy

Politics

Russia

United Kingdom

Russian oil licences are a phased approach to a new sanctions package, not a rollback of existing measures, and similar approaches are used by other countries to protect consumers. Inflation is falling, the energy price cap dropped by £117 and the fuel duty cut has been extended. This government is delivering real cost-of-living relief while keeping pressure on Russia.

Russian oil licences are a phased approach to a new sanctions package, not a rollback of existing measures, and similar approaches are used by other countries to protect consumers. Inflation is falling, the energy price cap dropped by £117 and the fuel duty cut has been extended. This government is delivering real cost-of-living relief while keeping pressure on Russia.

Allowing Russian-refined oil imports while voting against North Sea drilling is a contradiction that undermines both energy independence and support for Ukraine. After 18 months of posturing against Putin, quietly issuing these licences exposes a government with no consistent principles. Putin benefits whilst the British public pays for an incoherent energy policy.

Allowing Russian-refined oil imports while voting against North Sea drilling is a contradiction that undermines both energy independence and support for Ukraine. After 18 months of posturing against Putin, quietly issuing these licences exposes a government with no consistent principles. Putin benefits whilst the British public pays for an incoherent energy policy.

Sanctions on Russia have backfired for the West. As energy becomes more expensive in Europe amid an internatiional oil crisis, Russia goes from strength to strength through new deals with China and beyond. The UK and its partners have only themsleves to blame for its ideological follies.

Sanctions on Russia have backfired for the West. As energy becomes more expensive in Europe amid an internatiional oil crisis, Russia goes from strength to strength through new deals with China and beyond. The UK and its partners have only themsleves to blame for its ideological follies.

There is a 71% chance that the U.S. will import crude oil from Russia between 2025-30, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

There is a 71% chance that the U.S. will import crude oil from Russia between 2025-30, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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