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UK waters down new Russian oil sanctions as fuel prices rise

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"All in all, an end to the war doesn't seem to be within close range as we head into 2026."

"There will be no final settlement either now or in the foreseeable future."

"The war in Ukraine is unlikely to end in a sustainable peace in 2026."

"There is a 22% chance that there will be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2027."

"There is a 27% chance that Russia and Ukraine will have a ceasefire by the end of 2026."

"There is a 29% chance that the war in Ukraine will end by the end of 2026."

"Neither Ukraine nor Russia seems to be in a position to achieve a conclusive victory on the battlefield and, though both are under significant pressure, neither appears likely to collapse."

"A peace in 2026 is unlikely to be a true resolution. More likely is an “indefinite ceasefire” akin to the Korean Peninsula’s frozen conflict."

Will Russia and Ukraine publicly agree to a cessation of hostilities lasting more than 36 hours before January 1, 2027?

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"He's doomed, he will be gone - I thought he'd be gone by now. I was wrong. But I do think he's got just a few months in him."

"There is a 6% chance Keir Starmer will still be Prime Minister at the end of 2026."

"84% of bets back a 2026 exit for Keir Starmer."

"There is a 62% chance Keir Starmer will be out before Sep 1, 2026."

"There's a 32% chance Keir Starmer will remain Prime Minister in 2026."

"43% think that Keir Starmer will still be Prime Minister at the end of the year."

"These things turn around very, very fast and anyone making predictions in the current atmosphere is a fool."

"As much as MPs might want him to go, he is unlikely to acquiesce."

"There is only a 64% likelihood that he will still be in Downing Street by 31 December 2026."

“I will be sitting in this seat by 2027 and if this long-form interview works, we can try it again in January of next year as well.”

Will Keir Starmer Remain Prime Minister Through to the End of 2026?

The UK government issued a trade licence on May 20, 2026, permitting the import of diesel and jet fuel refined from Russian crude oil in third countries such as India and Turkey. The licence, of indefinite duration, will be periodically reviewed by the secretary of state.

The UK government issued a trade licence on May 20, 2026, permitting the import of diesel and jet fuel refined from Russian crude oil in third countries such as India and Turkey. The licence, of indefinite duration, will be periodically reviewed by the secretary of state.

The policy shift follows a similar move by the US, where Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent extended a 30-day sanctions waiver allowing the purchase of Russian seaborne oil. The EU criticised the US waiver extension at a G7 finance ministers meeting, with EU economy commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis saying it was not a time to "ease pressure on Russia."

The policy shift follows a similar move by the US, where Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent extended a 30-day sanctions waiver allowing the purchase of Russian seaborne oil. The EU criticised the US waiver extension at a G7 finance ministers meeting, with EU economy commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis saying it was not a time to "ease pressure on Russia."

The UK had previously announced in October 2025 that it would ban oil products derived from Russian crude oil entering via third countries, in order to restrict funds to the Kremlin. The Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air estimated around £1.8 billion worth of such products had entered the UK via India and Turkey since December 2022.

The UK had previously announced in October 2025 that it would ban oil products derived from Russian crude oil entering via third countries, in order to restrict funds to the Kremlin. The Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air estimated around £1.8 billion worth of such products had entered the UK via India and Turkey since December 2022.

The sanctions adjustment was prompted by supply disruptions stemming from the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz following the US-Israel conflict with Iran, which began Feb. 28. More than half of Europe's jet fuel transits the strait, and European jet fuel prices nearly doubled after the war started, rising from $831 per tonne to a peak of $1,838.

The sanctions adjustment was prompted by supply disruptions stemming from the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz following the US-Israel conflict with Iran, which began Feb. 28. More than half of Europe's jet fuel transits the strait, and European jet fuel prices nearly doubled after the war started, rising from $831 per tonne to a peak of $1,838.

The RAC reported that the average price of a litre of petrol at UK forecourts stood at 158.5p on Tuesday — the highest since December 2022. Energy analyst Cornwall Insight forecast that the typical annual household dual-fuel bill would rise to £1,850 for the July-September period, a 13% increase from the current cap of £1,641.

The RAC reported that the average price of a litre of petrol at UK forecourts stood at 158.5p on Tuesday — the highest since December 2022. Energy analyst Cornwall Insight forecast that the typical annual household dual-fuel bill would rise to £1,850 for the July-September period, a 13% increase from the current cap of £1,641.

Ukraine's sanctions commissioner Vladyslav Vlasiuk said he understood the rationale behind the UK's decision but disagreed with the approach, warning that temporary exemptions could still generate revenues for Russia. Labour's foreign affairs committee chair Dame Emily Thornberry also opposed the move, saying Ukrainians felt "very let down."

Ukraine's sanctions commissioner Vladyslav Vlasiuk said he understood the rationale behind the UK's decision but disagreed with the approach, warning that temporary exemptions could still generate revenues for Russia. Labour's foreign affairs committee chair Dame Emily Thornberry also opposed the move, saying Ukrainians felt "very let down."

UK Allows Russian-Refined Fuel Imports Amid Price Surge

UK easesAllows sanctions on Russian-Refined oilFuel importsImports asAmid fuelPrice prices soarSurge

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UK Allows Russian-Refined Fuel Imports Amid Price Surge

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