Russia and Belarus running nuclear drills right on NATO's doorstep is a direct provocation, not a routine exercise. With the New START treaty gone and Russia deploying hypersonic Oreshnik missiles to Belarus, the nuclear threat to Europe is more real than ever. Zelenskyy's warning that Moscow is planning new offensives from Belarusian territory — either into Ukraine or against a NATO country — deserves to be taken seriously.
These exercises — 64,000 troops, 7,800 pieces of equipment, ballistic and cruise missile launches — are a massive show of force designed to signal that Russia is fully prepared to escalate. The drills spanare taking place across the Leningrad and Central military districts and involve the Northern and Pacific fleets, makingwith thisthe farstated broaderaim thanof anypreparing routinenuclear readinessforces check.to respond to a simulated “threat of aggression.” With nuclear arms control collapsed, nothing is stopping Russia from expanding its arsenal unchecked.
There is a 5% chance that there will be a direct conflict between Russia and any NATO member state before 2027, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
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