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"Current and former U.S. officials say they see little sign, at least so far, of a mass popular uprising in Iran or of significant fissures within the government or security forces that will result in a new regime."

"There is an 11% chance that the Iranian government will lose power before 2027."

"There is an 8.9% chance that the Iranian regime will collapse and Reza Pahlavi will become head of state before January 1, 2027."

"There is an 19% chance that the Iranian regime will fall before 2027."

"Regime change is possible but unlikely."

"In any case, the Islamic Republic faces a significant challenge, and its long-term survival is not assured."

"Regime collapse or irreversible degradation is more likely than regime survival (65% likelihood)."

“The regime cannot continue that long.”

"If Trump sees it through, and I think he will, I think they're [going to] fall pretty soon, in two, three, four weeks."

"I think the regime will collapse before Iranian New Year (Nowruz), which is March 20th."

Will the Islamic Republic of Iran Experience Regime Collapse by 2027?

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi traveled to Beijing on Wednesday for talks with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, marking his first visit to China since the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran began on Feb. 28.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi traveled to Beijing on Wednesday for talks with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, marking his first visit to China since the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran began on Feb. 28.

The meeting came a week before Trump's scheduled summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping on May 14 and 15 in Beijing, where Iran and the Strait of Hormuz are expected to feature prominently on the agenda.

The meeting came a week before Trump's scheduled summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping on May 14 and 15 in Beijing, where Iran and the Strait of Hormuz are expected to feature prominently on the agenda.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio urged Beijing to press Araghchi to lift Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz, saying: "It is in China's interest that Iran stop closing the straits. It's harming China as well."

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio urged Beijing to press Araghchi to lift Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz, saying: "It is in China's interest that Iran stop closing the straits. It's harming China as well."

China buys more than 80% of Iran's shipped oil, and those imports account for roughly 12% of China's total oil supply, giving Beijing significant economic leverage over Tehran.

China buys more than 80% of Iran's shipped oil, and those imports account for roughly 12% of China's total oil supply, giving Beijing significant economic leverage over Tehran.

Wang Yi told Araghchi that China appreciates Iran's commitment not to pursue nuclear weapons while affirming Tehran's right to peaceful use of nuclear energy, and called for an immediate end to fighting.

Wang Yi told Araghchi that China appreciates Iran's commitment not to pursue nuclear weapons while affirming Tehran's right to peaceful use of nuclear energy, and called for an immediate end to fighting.

Trump paused the U.S. operation to escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, citing "great progress" toward a comprehensive agreement with Iran, though the U.S. naval blockade on Iranian ports remained in place.

Trump paused the U.S. operation to escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, citing "great progress" toward a comprehensive agreement with Iran, though the U.S. naval blockade on Iranian ports remained in place.

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