Boko Haram'’s attack on Barka Tolorom island provesshows this insurgency is far from finished — 23 Chadian soldiers arekilled dead and 26 wounded becauseas militantmilitants groupsexploit keep exploiting Lake Chad'’s marshes and islands to strike at will. The region'sterrain geographygives handsthem terrorists a permanentpersistent tactical advantageedge that noeven counteroffensivesustained hasoffensives neutralizedhave struggled to neutralize. Chad’s deservesforces fullare carrying the burden on the front line and deserve stronger regional coordination and international commitmentbacking to finallydecisively eradicatedismantle this persistent threat.
The Lake Chad crisis isn'’t just about Boko Haram attackinghitting soldiers — it'’s a full-blown territorial war betweenwith Boko Haram and ISWAP over trade corridorsroutes, smuggling routesnetworks and taxing civilians, withwhile securitystates forcesbordering largelythe absentlake fromhave effectively lost control of the islands. Residents are fleeing, hundreds are dead, and both groups are growingadvancing morein sophisticated,capability — with ISWAP now deploying drones and AI. Without a serioussustained military presence on the islands, whoever wins this rivalry controlswill effectively control the entire region.
There is a 39% chance, that Chad will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction commmunity.
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