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Militarising the Sahel is not defeating terrorism — it is entrenching it. Repeated offensives across Mali have failed to deliver lasting security, as insurgent groups adapt, regroup and expand. The latest attacks reinforce a clear pattern: military-first strategies displace violence while governance gaps and local grievances remain unaddressed. Without political solutions and credible state presence, each operation risks prolonging the cycle it claims to end.
There is a 63% chance that there will be a successful coup d'etat before 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
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