Freezing Iraq's oil revenue is the right call — Iran-backed militias have launched hundreds of attacks on U.S. embassies, troops and diplomatic facilities, and Baghdad has done nothing to stop them. Nearly 95 percent of Iraq's federal budget comes from oil revenue held in U.S. accounts, giving Washingtonthe Trump administration real leverage to demand accountability. Until Iraq arrests militia members and forms a government free of Iranian influence, cutting off that cash is the most effective pressuretool available.
Freezing Iraq'’s funds risks pushing Baghdad further intodestabilizing chaosBaghdad rather than solving the militia problem. — a blunt Trump-era pressure tactic that overlooks how Iran-aligned PMF factions are deeply embedded in the Iraqi state, draw government salaries and operate independentlybeyond ofcentral Baghdad'scontrol. ordersFinancial —coercion meaningends financialup pressurepunishing punishesa the Iraqi government for actions it genuinely cannot realistically control. Squeezingor Iraqcontain economicallyon withoutits accountingown. forSqueezing theseIraq structuralthis realitiesway couldultimately handrisks handing Tehran exactly the opening it needs to reassert influence.
Washington’s push to freeze Iraq’s funds exposes a pattern of external control overriding Iraqi sovereignty, just as Baghdad edges closer to a breakthrough in government formation. Using financial chokeholds while armed factions remain structurally embedded in the state punishes the country without addressing the underlying system, turning economic policy into blunt geopolitical leverage. This kind of pressure risks derailing fragile progress and reinforcing the very instability it claims to prevent.
There is a 27% chance that Iraq will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
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