Bloomberg

Japan Scraps Most Weapons Export Limits In Boost To Arms Sector

Financial Times

Japan lifts ban on lethal arms exports for first time since second world war

Al Jazeera

Japan lifts ban on lethal weapons exports in major shift of pacifist policy

BBC News

Japan loosens arms export rules in break from post-WW2 pacifism

Anadolu Agency

Japan lifts ban on exports of lethal arms in major defense policy shift since World War II

Newsweek

Japan Scraps WW2 Arms Banand China Isnt Pleased

Global Times

Japan scraps limits on lethal arms exports in major policy shift, sparking domestic backlash and remilitarization worries

The Asahi Shimbun

Japan reverses landmark policy to allow lethal arms exports

Beware of the risks of Japans military rampage: Global Times editorial

Japan Today

Japan opens door to global arms market with biggest export rule change in decades

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Japan News

Japan Lifts Ban on Lethal Weapon Exports, Looking to Strengthen Defense Industry

Survey: 84% oppose Trump strong-arming other nations

The Wall Street Journal

Japan Lifts Ban On Arms Exports B41C7574

Metaculus

Japan Response If China Invades Taiwan 2035

Donald Trump

Tsai Ing-wen

CSIS

Marco Rubio

Ian Bremmer

Michael McCaul

Ministry of National Defense of Taiwan

Bonnie S. Glaser

Mark Milley

Charles Glaser

Denny Roy

Mike Studeman

Oriana Skylar Mastro

Henry Olsen

Lyle Goldstein

Bates Gill

Minghao Zhao

Joseph Wu

Jessica Chen Weiss

Global Guardian

FischerKing

CounterPoint Global

Kerry Brown

Adithia Kusno

Palmer Luckey

Ely Ratner

Philip Davidson

"China has zero interest to invade Taiwan and has never threatened to invade Taiwan."

“I think we’ll be just fine with China. China doesn’t want to do that [invade Taiwan].”

"There's no indications or warnings of anything imminent [China attacking Taiwan] at this time."

a P.L.A. takeover of Taiwan is not inevitable nor, perhaps, even likely in the next few years."

"I wouldn't say war is likely in the next few years, but I wouldn't say it's unlikely over the next couple of decades."

"I think they (the Chinese) have intention, but absolutely I think we can get to the end of this decade without them committing major aggression against Taiwan."

"[T]here might indeed be some greater willingness by Beijing to coerce (or even invade) Taiwan during a Trump administration."

"An invasion of Taiwan could happen within this decade."

"Global Guardian thinks that the window for conflict or a blockade is now open, with that window most likely remaining open between 2024 and 2028."

"The idea is that anything we are working on, anything that we are investing in, needs to be built with the assumption that sometime in 2027, China is going to move on Taiwan."

“Taiwan is clearly one of [China's] ambitions before that and I think the threat is manifest during this decade — in fact, in the next six years.”

Will China Invade Taiwan by 2030?

Lloyd Austin

Mike Minihan

Jacob Thornburg

Michael Brenner

Finian Cunningham

Scott Ritter

Ray Dalio

Kevin Rudd

Zhao Tong

Stanislaw Koziej

Robert S. Ross

Charles C. Krulak

Michael C. Horowitz

Joseph S. Nye

Qin Gang

Frank Kendall III

Thomas L. Friedman

Marco J. Lyons

"I argue that war is unlikely to occur due to the deep economic ties underlying the great power politics between the two countries."

"War with either [Russia or China] is neither inevitable nor imminent."

"As things currently stand, the US is not prepared to fight and win a war with China over Taiwan."

"A war between the US and China today is no more inevitable than was war between the rising US and the declining United Kingdom a century ago."

"[T]he tension between the United States and China will grow, and competition will intensify; it is inevitable. War, however, is not."

"War is a risk, but it is not inevitable."

"The risk of a military conflict is very serious."

"The smallest misstep by either side [Taipei and Beijing] could ignite a U.S.-China war."

"China is preparing for a war and specifically for a war with the United States."

"The most proximate potential timeframe for war is in the next two years."

"My gut tells me we [the US] will fight [with China] in 2025."

Will There Be a US-China War?

Japan's cabinet approved a revision to its arms export rules on Tuesday, allowing the country to sell lethal weapons overseas for the first time since World War II. The policy shift, approved under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, removes a previous limit restricting exports to five non-lethal categories.

Japan's cabinet approved a revision to its arms export rules on Tuesday, allowing the country to sell lethal weapons overseas for the first time since World War II. The policy shift, approved under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, removes a previous limit restricting exports to five non-lethal categories.

Under the new framework, lethal weapons such as fighter jets, destroyers and submarines may be exported to the 17 countries that have existing defense cooperation agreements with Japan, including the U.S. and the U.K. Non-lethal equipment such as radar systems faces no destination restrictions.

Under the new framework, lethal weapons such as fighter jets, destroyers and submarines may be exported to the 17 countries that have existing defense cooperation agreements with Japan, including the U.S. and the U.K. Non-lethal equipment such as radar systems faces no destination restrictions.

Exports to nations engaged in active conflicts remain prohibited in principle, though the revised policy includes an exception clause allowing transfers under "special circumstances" tied to Japan's national security needs. All lethal weapons export decisions will be reviewed by Japan's National Security Council.

Exports to nations engaged in active conflicts remain prohibited in principle, though the revised policy includes an exception clause allowing transfers under "special circumstances" tied to Japan's national security needs. All lethal weapons export decisions will be reviewed by Japan's National Security Council.

The policy revision provides a legal basis for recent Japanese arms deals, including a multibillion-dollar agreement with Australia for Mogami-class frigates and a next-generation fighter jet being jointly developed with the U.K. and Italy under the Global Combat Air Program.

The policy revision provides a legal basis for recent Japanese arms deals, including a multibillion-dollar agreement with Australia for Mogami-class frigates and a next-generation fighter jet being jointly developed with the U.K. and Italy under the Global Combat Air Program.

China's Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun said the international community would "remain highly vigilant and firmly resist Japan's reckless moves." South Korea's Foreign Ministry said Japan's defense policy should uphold "the spirit of the Peace Constitution."

China's Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun said the international community would "remain highly vigilant and firmly resist Japan's reckless moves." South Korea's Foreign Ministry said Japan's defense policy should uphold "the spirit of the Peace Constitution."

The Asahi Shimbun reported Monday that 75% of respondents in its nationwide opinion poll supported upholding the Three Non-Nuclear Principles — no possession, no production and no introduction of nuclear weapons — while 67% opposed arms exports.

The Asahi Shimbun reported Monday that 75% of respondents in its nationwide opinion poll supported upholding the Three Non-Nuclear Principles — no possession, no production and no introduction of nuclear weapons — while 67% opposed arms exports.

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Metaculus #

Japan's arms export overhaul is a calculated dismantling of postwar pacifist constraints, not a defensive measure. Allowing lethal weapons exports — including to nations in active combat under vague "special circumstances" loopholes — turns Japan into a conflict-fueling arms merchant. This systematic remilitarization, paired with record defense budget hikes and a revived military-industrial complex, signals a dangerous return to the aggressive posture that devastated the Asia-Pacific region.

Japan's arms export overhaul is a calculated dismantling of postwar pacifist constraints, not a defensive measure. Allowing lethal weapons exports — including to nations in active combat under vague "special circumstances" loopholes — turns Japan into a conflict-fueling arms merchant. This systematic remilitarization, paired with record defense budget hikes and a revived military-industrial complex, signals a dangerous return to the aggressive posture that devastated the Asia-Pacific region.

Taku Yamazoe

Japan's defense export overhaul is a pragmatic, security-driven response to a genuinely dangerous world. No single nation can guarantee its own peace, and allies like the Philippines are already seeking access to Japan's high-quality, responsibly produced equipment. Strict case-by-case screening, U.N. Charter compliance requirements and firm transfer controls ensure this policy strengthens deterrence without abandoning Japan's eight-decade commitment to being a peace-loving nation.

Japan's defense export overhaul is a pragmatic, security-driven response to a genuinely dangerous world. No single nation can guarantee its own peace, and allies like the Philippines are already seeking access to Japan's high-quality, responsibly produced equipment. Strict case-by-case screening, U.N. Charter compliance requirements and firm transfer controls ensure this policy strengthens deterrence without abandoning Japan's eight-decade commitment to being a peace-loving nation.

Sanae Takaichi

There's a 50% chance that if China invades Taiwan before 2035, Japan will respond with military forces, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

There's a 50% chance that if China invades Taiwan before 2035, Japan will respond with military forces, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

China-Taiwan Relations

The US-China Conflict

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Japan Approves Lethal Arms Exports First Time Since WWII

Tomohiro Ohsumi/Getty Images

Japan Approves Lethal Arms Exports First Time Since WWII

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Politics

Japan's arms export overhaul is a calculated dismantling of postwar pacifist constraints. Allowing lethal weapons exports — including to nations in active combat under vague "special circumstances" loopholes — turns Japan into a conflict-fueling arms merchant. This systematic remilitarization, paired with record defense budget hikes and a revived military-industrial complex, signals a dangerous return to the aggressive posture that devastated the Asia-Pacific region.

Japan's arms export overhaul is a calculated dismantling of postwar pacifist constraints. Allowing lethal weapons exports — including to nations in active combat under vague "special circumstances" loopholes — turns Japan into a conflict-fueling arms merchant. This systematic remilitarization, paired with record defense budget hikes and a revived military-industrial complex, signals a dangerous return to the aggressive posture that devastated the Asia-Pacific region.

Japan Approves Lethal Arms Exports First Time Since WWII

Japan Approves Lethal Arms Exports First Time Since WWII

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