Polymarket

Brazil Presidential Election

Folha de S. Paulo

Lula tem 39% no 1 turno, e Flvio Bolsonaro aparece com 35%

Jovem Pan

PL abre vestibular para vice de Flvio e deve ter definio em junho

Valor International

Analysis: Lula hit by Iran war in new poll

VickyRichterUSA

The Associated Press

Lula keeps Alckmin as his running mate for Brazil’s general election in October

NewsLiberdade

Brasil 247

Lula mantm dianteira no Datafolha apesar da presso da direita

ggreenwald

CNN Brazil

Pesquisa CNT/MDA: Lula tem 44,9%, e Flvio, 40,2% no 2 turno

Kalshi

Who will win the Brazil presidential election?

Estadão

CNT/MDA: no 2 turno, Lula aparece com 44,9% e Flvio Bolsonaro tem 40,2%

Reuters

Lula narrowly ahead of Flavio Bolsonaro in potential Brazilian runoff, poll shows

Carta Capital

Os nmeros da disputa presidencial, segundo a nova pesquisa Genial/Quaest

The Rio Times

Datafolha: Flvio Bolsonaro Leads Lula in 2026 Runoff

Bloomberg

Flavio Bolsonaro Takes Slim Lead Over Lula In Brazil Runoff Poll

Agência Brasil

Moraes abre ao contra Flvio Bolsonaro por suposta calnia a Lula

zerohedge

Al Jazeera

Brazils police open a probe into presidential candidate Flavio Bolsonaro

Metaculus

Will Lula be reelected in 2026?

Brazilian Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro has edged ahead of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva this week in betting markets for this year's presidential election — 45% to 41% on Kalshi and 40.8% to 40% on Polymarket as of Wednesday.

Brazilian Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro has edged ahead of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva this week in betting markets for this year's presidential election — 45% to 41% on Kalshi and 40.8% to 40% on Polymarket as of Wednesday.

This comes as a Genial/Quaest survey of 2,004 people released on Wednesday found the 44-year-old son of former President Jair Bolsonaro and Lula in a technical tie in a runoff simulation as Flávio holds a two-point lead over the incumbent president — a gap that falls within the poll's two-point margin of error.

This comes as a Genial/Quaest survey of 2,004 people released on Wednesday found the 44-year-old son of former President Jair Bolsonaro and Lula in a technical tie in a runoff simulation as Flávio holds a two-point lead over the incumbent president — a gap that falls within the poll's two-point margin of error.

Earlier this week, a Datafolha poll conducted among 2,004 voters put the right-wing senator at 46% and Lula at 45% in a potential runoff, marking the first time in its series that Lula trails numerically. While the difference is within the survey's two-point margin of error, <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.verity.news/story/2026/lula-flavio-bolsonaro-in-dead-heat-for-brazil-election">Lula was leading 46% to 43% last month</a>.

Earlier this week, a Datafolha poll conducted among 2,004 voters put the right-wing senator at 46% and Lula at 45% in a potential runoff, marking the first time in its series that Lula trails numerically. While the difference is within the survey's two-point margin of error, Lula was leading 46% to 43% last month.

A CNT/MDA poll of 2,002 respondents released on Tuesday, however, contrasts with those and other recent surveys showing the two candidates statistically tied in a runoff. With a margin of error of 2.2%, it found that Lula would defeat Flávio Bolsonaro in a hypothetical matchup, 44.9% to 40.2%.

A CNT/MDA poll of 2,002 respondents released on Tuesday, however, contrasts with those and other recent surveys showing the two candidates statistically tied in a runoff. With a margin of error of 2.2%, it found that Lula would defeat Flávio Bolsonaro in a hypothetical matchup, 44.9% to 40.2%.

Meanwhile, Brazil's Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes ordered a probe into whether Flávio Bolsonaro issued defamatory statements about Lula in posts on X following the U.S. seizure of Nicolás Maduro in January. In response, Bolsonaro reaffirmed his right to free speech and doubled down on his claims.

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ZeroHedge

Meanwhile, Brazil's Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes ordered a probe into whether Flávio Bolsonaro issued defamatory statements about Lula in posts on X following the U.S. seizure of Nicolás Maduro in January. In response, Bolsonaro reaffirmed his right to free speech and doubled down on his claims.

Brazil will hold general elections in October this year. Lula confirmed this month that <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.verity.news/story/2026/lula-picks-alckmin-again-for-brazils-october-vote">Vice President Geraldo Alckmin will again serve as his running mate</a>, while Bolsonaro is expected to select a running mate until June.

Brazil will hold general elections in October this year. Lula confirmed this month that Vice President Geraldo Alckmin will again serve as his running mate, while Bolsonaro is expected to select a running mate until June.

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Brazilian Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro has edged ahead of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva this week in betting markets for this year's presidential election — 45% to 41% on Kalshi and 41% to 40% on Polymarket as of Wednesday.

Brazilian Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro has edged ahead of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva this week in betting markets for this year's presidential election — 45% to 41% on Kalshi and 41% to 40% on Polymarket as of Wednesday.

Earlier this week, a Datafolha poll conducted among 2,004 voters put the right-wing senator at 46% and Lula at 45% in a potential runoff, marking the first time in its series that Lula trails numerically. While the difference is within the survey's two-point margin of error, Lula was leading 46% to 43% last month.

showed Lula leading Bolsonaro 44.9% to 40.2% in a runoff simulation, contrasting with other recent surveys that showed the two candidates statistically tied.

showed Lula leading Bolsonaro 44.9% to 40.2% in a runoff simulation, contrasting with other recent surveys that showed the two candidates statistically tied.

Brazil's Supreme Court authorized the Federal Police to investigate Senator Flávio Bolsonaro over posts he published in January linking President Lula to crimes including drug trafficking, following a request from the Federal Police backed by the attorney general's office. Police have 60 days to complete their initial inquiry.

Brazil's Supreme Court authorized the Federal Police to investigate Senator Flávio Bolsonaro over posts he published in January linking President Lula to crimes including drug trafficking, following a request from the Federal Police backed by the attorney general's office. Police have 60 days to complete their initial inquiry.

Lula confirmed he will again run with Vice President Geraldo Alckmin, a center-right politician, while Bolsonaro's camp is conducting roughly 60 days of polling to select a running mate, with the Progressistas party considered the likely source of the pick.

Lula confirmed he will again run with Vice President Geraldo Alckmin, a center-right politician, while Bolsonaro's camp is conducting roughly 60 days of polling to select a running mate, with the Progressistas party considered the likely source of the pick.

Flávio Bolsonaro is surging in the polls and suddenly faces a criminal inquiry from the same judge who controls Brazil's electoral machinery — that's not a coincidence. Alexandre de Moraes has already shown he'll sideline candidates who threaten the preferred outcome, and a scandal involving his own wife hasn't slowed him down. In Brazil right now, the most powerful ballot is the one a judge decides you never get to cast.

Flávio Bolsonaro is surging in the polls and suddenly faces a criminal inquiry from the same judge who controls Brazil's electoral machinery — that's not a coincidence. Alexandre de Moraes has already shown he'll sideline candidates who threaten the preferred outcome, and a scandal involving his own wife hasn't slowed him down. In Brazil right now, the most powerful ballot is the one a judge decides you never get to cast.

Vicky Richter

Glenn Greenwald

Lula still leads the first round with 39% to Flávio Bolsonaro's 35%, and that's the number that actually decides who survives to the final stage. Second-round scenarios are all within the margin of error — that's a technical tie, not a Lula collapse. Turning a tight race into a premature political obituary is a media strategy, not an electoral reality.

Lula still leads the first round with 39% to Flávio Bolsonaro's 35%, and that's the number that actually decides who survives to the final stage. Second-round scenarios are all within the margin of error — that's a technical tie, not a Lula collapse. Turning a tight race into a premature political obituary is a media strategy, not an electoral reality.

There's a 50% chance that Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva will be reelected as Brazil's president in October 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

There's a 50% chance that Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva will be reelected as Brazil's president in October 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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The US Seizure of Nicolás Maduro

Brazil: Flávio Bolsonaro's Odds to Win Presidential Election Surge in Prediction Markets

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Brazil: Flávio Bolsonaro's Odds to Win Presidential Election Surge in Prediction Markets

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Flávio Bolsonaro has surged in polls and is now the most likely to win the presidential election. Beyond polls and prediction markets, this trend is confirmed as the tyrannical Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes is now taking steps to prevent his candidacy. Moraes controls Brazil's electoral machinery and is determined not to allow the nation to vote Lula out of office.

Flávio Bolsonaro has surged in polls and is now the most likely to win the presidential election. Beyond polls and prediction markets, this trend is confirmed as the tyrannical Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes is now taking steps to prevent his candidacy. Moraes controls Brazil's electoral machinery and is determined not to allow the nation to vote Lula out of office.

While this is indeed a tight race, it's a matter of fact that polls show Lula leading the first round with 45% of valid votes and either ahead or in technical ties with Flávio Bolsonaro in runoff scenarios. Moreover, Bolsonaro's rise has faced remarkably little scrutiny as he has avoided unscripted interviews and Lula's digital base has only now begun to push back against him.

While this is indeed a tight race, it's a matter of fact that polls show Lula leading the first round with 45% of valid votes and either ahead or in technical ties with Flávio Bolsonaro in runoff scenarios. Moreover, Bolsonaro's rise has faced remarkably little scrutiny as he has avoided unscripted interviews and Lula's digital base has only now begun to push back against him.

Brazil: Flávio Bolsonaro Leads Presidential Race in Prediction Markets

Brazil: Flávio Bolsonaro's OddsLeads to Win Presidential ElectionRace Surge in Prediction Markets

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Metaculus Prediction

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