Polymarket

Brazil Presidential Election

Folha de S. Paulo

Lula tem 39% no 1 turno, e Flvio Bolsonaro aparece com 35%

Jovem Pan

PL abre vestibular para vice de Flvio e deve ter definio em junho

Valor International

Analysis: Lula hit by Iran war in new poll

VickyRichterUSA

The Associated Press

Lula keeps Alckmin as his running mate for Brazil’s general election in October

NewsLiberdade

Brasil 247

Lula mantm dianteira no Datafolha apesar da presso da direita

ggreenwald

CNN Brazil

Pesquisa CNT/MDA: Lula tem 44,9%, e Flvio, 40,2% no 2 turno

Kalshi

Who will win the Brazil presidential election?

Estadão

CNT/MDA: no 2 turno, Lula aparece com 44,9% e Flvio Bolsonaro tem 40,2%

Reuters

Lula narrowly ahead of Flavio Bolsonaro in potential Brazilian runoff, poll shows

Carta Capital

Os nmeros da disputa presidencial, segundo a nova pesquisa Genial/Quaest

The Rio Times

Datafolha: Flvio Bolsonaro Leads Lula in 2026 Runoff

Bloomberg

Flavio Bolsonaro Takes Slim Lead Over Lula In Brazil Runoff Poll

Agência Brasil

Moraes abre ao contra Flvio Bolsonaro por suposta calnia a Lula

zerohedge

Al Jazeera

Brazils police open a probe into presidential candidate Flavio Bolsonaro

Brazilian Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro has edged ahead of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva this week in betting markets for this year's presidential election — 45% to 41% on Kalshi and 40.8% to 40% on Polymarket as of Wednesday.

Brazilian Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro has edged ahead of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva this week in betting markets for this year's presidential election — 45% to 41% on Kalshi and 40.8% to 40% on Polymarket as of Wednesday.

This comes as a Genial/Quaest survey of 2,004 people released on Wednesday found the 44-year-old son of former President Jair Bolsonaro and Lula in a technical tie in a runoff simulation as Flávio holds a two-point lead over the incumbent president — a gap that falls within the poll's two-point margin of error.

This comes as a Genial/Quaest survey of 2,004 people released on Wednesday found the 44-year-old son of former President Jair Bolsonaro and Lula in a technical tie in a runoff simulation as Flávio holds a two-point lead over the incumbent president — a gap that falls within the poll's two-point margin of error.

Earlier this week, a Datafolha poll conducted among 2,004 voters put the right-wing senator at 46% and Lula at 45% in a potential runoff, marking the first time in its series that has Lula trailed. While the difference is within the survey's two-point margin of error, <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.verity.news/story/2026/lula-flavio-bolsonaro-in-dead-heat-for-brazil-election">Lula was leading 46% to 43% last month</a>.

Earlier this week, a Datafolha poll conducted among 2,004 voters put the right-wing senator at 46% and Lula at 45% in a potential runoff, marking the first time in its series that has Lula trailed. While the difference is within the survey's two-point margin of error, Lula was leading 46% to 43% last month.

A CNT/MDA poll of 2,002 respondents released on Tuesday, however, contrasts with those and other recent surveys showing the two candidates statistically tied in a runoff. With a margin of error of 2.2%, it found that Lula would defeat Flávio Bolsonaro in a hypothetical matchup, 44.9% to 40.2%.

A CNT/MDA poll of 2,002 respondents released on Tuesday, however, contrasts with those and other recent surveys showing the two candidates statistically tied in a runoff. With a margin of error of 2.2%, it found that Lula would defeat Flávio Bolsonaro in a hypothetical matchup, 44.9% to 40.2%.

Meanwhile, Brazil's Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes ordered a probe into whether Flávio Bolsonaro issued defamatory statements about Lula in posts on X following <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.verity.news/story/2026/trump-orders-military-strikes-on-venezuela-facilities">the U.S. seizure of Nicolás Maduro in January</a>. In response, Bolsonaro reaffirmed his right to free speech and doubled down on his claims.

SPACE LIBERDADE

ZeroHedge

Meanwhile, Brazil's Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes ordered a probe into whether Flávio Bolsonaro issued defamatory statements about Lula in posts on X following the U.S. seizure of Nicolás Maduro in January. In response, Bolsonaro reaffirmed his right to free speech and doubled down on his claims.

Brazil will hold general elections in October this year. Lula confirmed this month that <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.verity.news/story/2026/lula-picks-alckmin-again-for-brazils-october-vote">Vice President Geraldo Alckmin will again serve as his running mate</a>, while Bolsonaro isn't expected to select a running mate until June.

Brazil will hold general elections in October this year. Lula confirmed this month that Vice President Geraldo Alckmin will again serve as his running mate, while Bolsonaro isn't expected to select a running mate until June.

Flávio Bolsonaro has surged in polls and is now the most likely to win the presidential election. Beyond prediction markets, this trend has been confirmed by the tyrannical Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes, who is now taking steps to prevent his candidacy. Moraes controls Brazil's electoral machinery and is determined not to allow the nation to vote Lula out of office.

Flávio Bolsonaro has surged in polls and is now the most likely to win the presidential election. Beyond prediction markets, this trend has been confirmed by the tyrannical Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes, who is now taking steps to prevent his candidacy. Moraes controls Brazil's electoral machinery and is determined not to allow the nation to vote Lula out of office.

Vicky Richter

Glenn Greenwald

Government-critical narrative

While this is indeed a tight race, it's a matter of fact that polls show Lula leading the first round with 45% of valid votes and either ahead or in technical ties with Flávio Bolsonaro in runoff scenarios. Moreover, Bolsonaro's rise has faced remarkably little scrutiny as he has avoided unscripted interviews and Lula's digital base has only now begun to push back against him.

While this is indeed a tight race, it's a matter of fact that polls show Lula leading the first round with 45% of valid votes and either ahead or in technical ties with Flávio Bolsonaro in runoff scenarios. Moreover, Bolsonaro's rise has faced remarkably little scrutiny as he has avoided unscripted interviews and Lula's digital base has only now begun to push back against him.

Pro-government narrative

There's a 50% chance that Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva will be reelected as Brazil's president in October 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

There's a 50% chance that Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva will be reelected as Brazil's president in October 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Metaculus

Will Lula be reelected in 2026?

Nerd narrative

Flavio Bolsonaro

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

Alexandre de Moraes

Shelby Tauber/Bloomberg/Getty Images