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Brazil: Flávio Bolsonaro's Odds to Win Presidential Election Surge in Prediction Markets

Brazil: Flávio Bolsonaro's Odds to Win Presidential Election Surge in Prediction Markets

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The Spin


Lula still leads the first round with 39% to Flávio Bolsonaro's 35%, and that's the number that actually decides who survives to the final stage. Second-round scenarios are all within the margin of error — that's a technical tie, not a Lula collapse. Turning a tight race into a premature political obituary is a media strategy, not an electoral reality.

Flávio Bolsonaro is surging in the polls and suddenly faces a criminal inquiry from the same judge who controls Brazil's electoral machinery — that's not a coincidence. Alexandre de Moraes has already shown he'll sideline candidates who threaten the preferred outcome, and a scandal involving his own wife hasn't slowed him down. In Brazil right now, the most powerful ballot is the one a judge decides you never get to cast.


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© 2026 Improve the News Foundation. All rights reserved.Version 7.4.1

© 2026 Improve the News Foundation.

All rights reserved.

Version 7.4.1