Trump's blockade risks backfiring by triggering massive global supply shocks and escalating conflict without a clear legal grounding. Markets already face the loss of up to a billion barrels, requiring emergency reserves, while a full blockade is widely viewed as an act of war that could provoke retaliation, alienate allies and destabilize global energy flows without guaranteeing that Iran will change course.

The U.S. blockade appears less like enforcement and more like collective punishment, risking global economic harm to pressure Iran during this unlawful war. By threatening all shipping and boasting of destruction, Washington escalates tensions while undermining sovereignty and international norms, making broader regional retaliation and instability far more likely than any constructive outcome. Iran is, by far, the rational actor here.