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"China has zero interest to invade Taiwan and has never threatened to invade Taiwan."

“I think we’ll be just fine with China. China doesn’t want to do that [invade Taiwan].”

"There's no indications or warnings of anything imminent [China attacking Taiwan] at this time."

a P.L.A. takeover of Taiwan is not inevitable nor, perhaps, even likely in the next few years."

"I wouldn't say war is likely in the next few years, but I wouldn't say it's unlikely over the next couple of decades."

"I think they (the Chinese) have intention, but absolutely I think we can get to the end of this decade without them committing major aggression against Taiwan."

"[T]here might indeed be some greater willingness by Beijing to coerce (or even invade) Taiwan during a Trump administration."

"An invasion of Taiwan could happen within this decade."

"Global Guardian thinks that the window for conflict or a blockade is now open, with that window most likely remaining open between 2024 and 2028."

"The idea is that anything we are working on, anything that we are investing in, needs to be built with the assumption that sometime in 2027, China is going to move on Taiwan."

“Taiwan is clearly one of [China's] ambitions before that and I think the threat is manifest during this decade — in fact, in the next six years.”

Will China Invade Taiwan by 2030?

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"I argue that war is unlikely to occur due to the deep economic ties underlying the great power politics between the two countries."

"War with either [Russia or China] is neither inevitable nor imminent."

"As things currently stand, the US is not prepared to fight and win a war with China over Taiwan."

"A war between the US and China today is no more inevitable than was war between the rising US and the declining United Kingdom a century ago."

"[T]he tension between the United States and China will grow, and competition will intensify; it is inevitable. War, however, is not."

"War is a risk, but it is not inevitable."

"The risk of a military conflict is very serious."

"The smallest misstep by either side [Taipei and Beijing] could ignite a U.S.-China war."

"China is preparing for a war and specifically for a war with the United States."

"The most proximate potential timeframe for war is in the next two years."

"My gut tells me we [the US] will fight [with China] in 2025."

Will There Be a US-China War?

KMT Chairwoman Cheng Li-wun met Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing on April 10, becoming the first sitting KMT leader to visit mainland China in a decade. The delegation had previously toured Jiangsu Province and Shanghai before arriving in the capital.

KMT Chairwoman Cheng Li-wun met Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing on April 10, becoming the first sitting KMT leader to visit mainland China in a decade. The delegation had previously toured Jiangsu Province and Shanghai before arriving in the capital.

Xi and Cheng met at the Great Hall of the People, where Xi said engagement with Taiwanese parties would require adherence to the 1992 Consensus and opposition to Taiwan independence. The 1992 Consensus refers to a tacit understanding that both sides acknowledge one China, while leaving room for differing interpretations.

Xi and Cheng met at the Great Hall of the People, where Xi said engagement with Taiwanese parties would require adherence to the 1992 Consensus and opposition to Taiwan independence. The 1992 Consensus refers to a tacit understanding that both sides acknowledge one China, while leaving room for differing interpretations.

Taiwan's ruling Democratic Progressive Party criticized Cheng's trip, with President Lai Ching-te writing on Facebook that "compromising with authoritarian powers only sacrifices sovereignty and democracy." Taiwan's Mainland Affairs Council said Cheng's remarks mischaracterized the island's sovereignty dispute as an internal matter.

Taiwan's ruling Democratic Progressive Party criticized Cheng's trip, with President Lai Ching-te writing on Facebook that "compromising with authoritarian powers only sacrifices sovereignty and democracy." Taiwan's Mainland Affairs Council said Cheng's remarks mischaracterized the island's sovereignty dispute as an internal matter.

The meeting came as the KMT has blocked a $40 billion special defense budget proposed by President Lai, offering a smaller $12 billion alternative instead. Republican Senator Jim Banks has urged Taiwanese lawmakers to pass the stalled budget.

The meeting came as the KMT has blocked a $40 billion special defense budget proposed by President Lai, offering a smaller $12 billion alternative instead. Republican Senator Jim Banks has urged Taiwanese lawmakers to pass the stalled budget.

Two Taiwanese security officials told Reuters that China deployed nearly 100 naval and coast guard vessels across the South and East China seas during the week of the meeting, roughly double the usual figure. Taiwan's defense minister told legislators that China's military threat to the island was becoming "increasingly severe."

Two Taiwanese security officials told Reuters that China deployed nearly 100 naval and coast guard vessels across the South and East China seas during the week of the meeting, roughly double the usual figure. Taiwan's defense minister told legislators that China's military threat to the island was becoming "increasingly severe."

A 2025 survey by National Chengchi University found 62 percent of respondents in Taiwan identified as Taiwanese, up from 17.6 percent in 1992. Academia Sinica political scientist Yen Wei-ting said the meeting is unlikely to reduce cross-strait tensions in any substantive way, as the structural conditions have not changed.

A 2025 survey by National Chengchi University found 62 percent of respondents in Taiwan identified as Taiwanese, up from 17.6 percent in 1992. Academia Sinica political scientist Yen Wei-ting said the meeting is unlikely to reduce cross-strait tensions in any substantive way, as the structural conditions have not changed.

KMT Chief Meets Xi in First China Visit in a Decade

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KMT Chief Meets Xi in First China Visit in a Decade

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