To Lam's rise to general secretary and state president marks a defining moment for Vietnam's future. Placing people at the center of all policy, the unified leadership structure enables faster, bolder decisions that Vietnam needs to achieve its long-term goals, including 10% annual GDP growth and reaching high-income status by 2045.
The growing concentration of power in To Lam's hands is a troubling development. Evidently, To Lam is modeling himself after Xi Jinping, dismantling Vietnam's traditional system of collective leadership while using surveillance and repression to silence dissent. This change is a dangerous regression that threatens to set Vietnam back.
There's a 1% chance that the PRC will find itself in a high-intensity conflict with Vietnam by the end of 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
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