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About the investigation: The Panama Papers

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5Y After Agi Universal Basic Income

The U.K.-based charity Oxfam released a report on Thursday ahead of the 10th anniversary of the Panama Papers, claiming that approximately $3.55 trillion in untaxed wealth was held offshore in 2024, a sum greater than France's GDP and twice that of the world's 44 least developed countries combined.

The U.K.-based charity Oxfam released a report on Thursday ahead of the 10th anniversary of the Panama Papers, claiming that approximately $3.55 trillion in untaxed wealth was held offshore in 2024, a sum greater than France's GDP and twice that of the world's 44 least developed countries combined.

The figure represented the charity's mid-range estimate, with a low-end scenario of nearly $2 trillion and a high-end scenario of $4.8 trillion, based on the findings of Gabriel Zucman et al.'s Global Tax Evasion Report 2024 and World Bank data on global GDP.

The figure represented the charity's mid-range estimate, with a low-end scenario of nearly $2 trillion and a high-end scenario of $4.8 trillion, based on the findings of Gabriel Zucman et al.'s Global Tax Evasion Report 2024 and World Bank data on global GDP.

According to Oxfam, the richest 0.1% of households accounted for 80% of this amount, equalling roughly $2.84 trillion, which the charity claimed was more wealth than the bottom half of the global population combined.

According to Oxfam, the richest 0.1% of households accounted for 80% of this amount, equalling roughly $2.84 trillion, which the charity claimed was more wealth than the bottom half of the global population combined.

Within this subset, Oxfam calculated that the richest 0.01% of households owned around 50% of all offshore untaxed wealth that year, valued at $1.77 trillion, using the data in Alstadsæter et al.'s 2018 paper, "Who owns the wealth in tax havens? Macro evidence and implications for global inequality."

Within this subset, Oxfam calculated that the richest 0.01% of households owned around 50% of all offshore untaxed wealth that year, valued at $1.77 trillion, using the data in Alstadsæter et al.'s 2018 paper, "Who owns the wealth in tax havens? Macro evidence and implications for global inequality."

Oxfam also published an analysis concluding that just 3% of over 1,000 IMF tax recommendations made between 2022 and 2024 focused on wealth, while 59% of advice to low- and lower-middle-income countries was regressive.

Oxfam also published an analysis concluding that just 3% of over 1,000 IMF tax recommendations made between 2022 and 2024 focused on wealth, while 59% of advice to low- and lower-middle-income countries was regressive.

To tackle wealth inequality, Oxfam called for taxes on the richest 1%, having advocated for a 2% wealth tax on fortunes over $5 million and 5% on billionaires, more powers for tax authorities, greater financial transparency, and cooperation to end tax havens and tax the "super rich" under the UN Framework Convention on International Tax Cooperation.

To tackle wealth inequality, Oxfam called for taxes on the richest 1%, having advocated for a 2% wealth tax on fortunes over $5 million and 5% on billionaires, more powers for tax authorities, greater financial transparency, and cooperation to end tax havens and tax the "super rich" under the UN Framework Convention on International Tax Cooperation.

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The Panama Papers, published 10 years ago, exposed offshore holdings linked to more than 214,000 companies connected to people in over 200 countries, drawing on 11.5 million leaked files from Panamanian law firm Mossack Fonseca.

The Panama Papers, published 10 years ago, exposed offshore holdings linked to more than 214,000 companies connected to people in over 200 countries, drawing on 11.5 million leaked files from Panamanian law firm Mossack Fonseca.

Oxfam estimates that $3.55 trillion in untaxed wealth was held offshore in 2024, a sum exceeding France's GDP and more than twice the combined GDP of the world's 44 least developed countries.

Oxfam estimates that $3.55 trillion in untaxed wealth was held offshore in 2024, a sum exceeding France's GDP and more than twice the combined GDP of the world's 44 least developed countries.

The richest 0.1% of households holds an estimated 80% of all untaxed offshore wealth, roughly $2.84 trillion — an amount equivalent to the total wealth of the poorest half of the global population.

The richest 0.1% of households holds an estimated 80% of all untaxed offshore wealth, roughly $2.84 trillion — an amount equivalent to the total wealth of the poorest half of the global population.

Oxfam analysis found that just 3% of over 1,000 IMF tax recommendations made between 2022 and 2024 focused on taxing wealth, while 59% of advice to low- and lower-middle-income countries was regressive.

Oxfam analysis found that just 3% of over 1,000 IMF tax recommendations made between 2022 and 2024 focused on taxing wealth, while 59% of advice to low- and lower-middle-income countries was regressive.

The UN's Second Committee approved a resolution on international tax cooperation by 125 votes to 9 in 2024, with the U.S. expressing concern the work would "duplicate existing intergovernmental negotiations in other fora."

The UN's Second Committee approved a resolution on international tax cooperation by 125 votes to 9 in 2024, with the U.S. expressing concern the work would "duplicate existing intergovernmental negotiations in other fora."

Negotiations on a UN Framework Convention on International Tax Cooperation are scheduled across six Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee sessions between August 2025 and late 2026, with a final text submission expected in 2027.

Negotiations on a UN Framework Convention on International Tax Cooperation are scheduled across six Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee sessions between August 2025 and late 2026, with a final text submission expected in 2027.

A decade after the Panama Papers, the super-rich are still hiding $3.55 trillion in offshore tax havens — more than the entire wealth of the poorest 4.1 billion people. This isn't clever accounting; it's raw power and impunity, starving public hospitals and schools while ordinary people foot the bill. Taxing extreme wealth isn't radical — it's the only way to stop a rigged system from shredding what's left of society.

A decade after the Panama Papers, the super-rich are still hiding $3.55 trillion in offshore tax havens — more than the entire wealth of the poorest 4.1 billion people. This isn't clever accounting; it's raw power and impunity, starving public hospitals and schools while ordinary people foot the bill. Taxing extreme wealth isn't radical — it's the only way to stop a rigged system from shredding what's left of society.

Wealth taxes sound righteous but consistently fail in the real world — France, Spain and other countries repealed them after wealthy taxpayers simply left, raising far less revenue than promised. A 2% wealth tax is effectively a 50% capital gains tax, punishing investment and killing the capital formation that drives wages for everyone. Soaking the rich is a political fantasy that postpones hard fiscal choices while making economies weaker.

Wealth taxes sound righteous but consistently fail in the real world — France, Spain and other countries repealed them after wealthy taxpayers simply left, raising far less revenue than promised. A 2% wealth tax is effectively a 50% capital gains tax, punishing investment and killing the capital formation that drives wages for everyone. Soaking the rich is a political fantasy that postpones hard fiscal choices while making economies weaker.

Panama Papers at 10: $3.55T Offshore Wealth Untaxed

Taxation

Tax evasion

A decade after the Panama Papers, the super-rich are still hiding $3.55 trillion in offshore tax havens — more wealth than the world's poorest 4.1 billion people. Rather than clever accounting, this is greed with impunity, which is starving public hospitals and schools that ordinary people foot the bill for. Taxing extreme wealth, therefore, isn't radical; it's the only way to stop a rigged system from shredding what's left of society.

A decade after the Panama Papers, the super-rich are still hiding $3.55 trillion in offshore tax havens — more wealth than the world's poorest 4.1 billion people. Rather than clever accounting, this is greed with impunity, which is starving public hospitals and schools that ordinary people foot the bill for. Taxing extreme wealth, therefore, isn't radical; it's the only way to stop a rigged system from shredding what's left of society.

Wealth taxes sound righteous, but consistently fail in the real world, with numerous countries repealing them after their wealthy taxpayers simply left, raising far less revenue than promised while killing capital formation in the process. Policy choices such as these are little more than political fantasy to postpone the hard fiscal choices that welfare-bloated states must make.

Wealth taxes sound righteous, but consistently fail in the real world, with numerous countries repealing them after their wealthy taxpayers simply left, raising far less revenue than promised while killing capital formation in the process. Policy choices such as these are little more than political fantasy to postpone the hard fiscal choices that welfare-bloated states must make.

There is a 35% chance that five years after AGI, there will be a universal basic income, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

There is a 35% chance that five years after AGI, there will be a universal basic income, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Oxfam: $3.55T Offshore Wealth Untaxed

Panama Papers at 10Oxfam: $3.55T Offshore Wealth Untaxed

The Spin

Metaculus Prediction

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