Emily Gregory Trump District Win
The Washington Post2 days
Democrat Flips Trump's Backyard in Florida Special Election
Democrat Flips Trump's Backyard in Florida Special Election
Above: **Watermarked Getty Image. Kindly Replace** President Donald Trump's Mar-a-Lago club in Palm Beach, Florida. Image credit: Saul Martinez/Getty Images
The Spin
Democrat Emily Gregory flipping Florida House District 87 — the district that includes Trump's Mar-a-Lago — is a massive rebuke of MAGA politics right in Trump's own backyard. Trump won this district by double digits, yet his "full and unconditional support" for the Republican candidate couldn't save the seat. This is proof that the red wall is cracking.
One low-turnout special election doesn't erase the national momentum Republicans built — special elections are local circus acts, not referendums on Trump's agenda. GOP complacency and weak turnout handed Democrats a narrow 51-48 win, not some grand political realignment. This is a wake-up call to mobilize every voter and fight harder heading into 2026.
Metaculus Prediction
There is a 50% chance Donald Trump's net approval will be -14.2 on Nov. 2, 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
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© 2026 Improve the News Foundation.
All rights reserved.
Version 6.18.0