Emily Gregory Trump District Win
The Washington Post2 days
Democrat Flips Florida District That Includes Mar-a-Lago
Is the Florida House District 87 flip a crack in the "red wall" or just a GOP turnout failure?
Above: The Mar-a-Lago club in Palm Beach, Florida on March 20, 2024. Image credit: Saul Martinez/Getty Images
The Spin
Democratic narrative
Gregory flipping Florida House District 87 — the district that includes Trump's Mar-a-Lago — is a massive rebuke of MAGA politics right in Trump's own backyard. Trump won this district by double digits, yet his "full and unconditional support" for the Republican candidate couldn't save the seat. This is proof that the red wall is cracking.
Republican narrative
One low-turnout special election doesn't erase the national momentum Republicans built — special elections are local circus acts, not referendums on Trump's agenda. GOP complacency and weak turnout handed Democrats a narrow 51-48 win, not some grand political realignment. This is a wake-up call to mobilize every voter and fight harder heading into 2026.
Metaculus Prediction
There is a 50% chance Donald Trump's net approval will be at least -14.2 on Nov. 2, 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Public Figures
Go Deeper
Political split
LEFT
RIGHT
© 2026 Improve the News Foundation. All rights reserved.Version 6.18.0
© 2026 Improve the News Foundation.
All rights reserved.
Version 6.18.0