The Washington Post

Emily Gregory Trump District Win

Breitbart

Democrat Flips Florida State House District That Includes Trump’s Mar-a-Lago

CTVNews

Democrat flips seat in Trump district, home to his Mar-a-Lago resort

Politico

Dems Win Mar A Lago Gregory 00843333

Guardian

Democrats flip seat in Florida state house in district that includes Trump’s Mar-a-Lago

Democrat flips Republican-held Florida state House district that includes Trump’s Mar-a-Lago

BBC News

Democrat wins Florida state seat containing Trump's Mar-a-Lago estate

Financial Times

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MykhailoRohoza

TheRickyDavila

ShannonigansX_

50yowhiteguys

Metaculus

What will Donald Trump's net approval be on November 2, 2026?

MS Now

Democrat flips Florida state House seat in district that includes Trumps Mar-a-Lago

Donald Trump

Nancy Pelosi

Kevin McCarthy

Ron DeSantis

Marjorie Taylor Greene

Mike Johnson

Hakeem Jeffries

Gavin Newsom

Thom Tillis

Nancy Mace

James Carville

Manuel Bonder

Paul Begala

Mike Marinella

Newt Gingrich

Larry Diamond

Larry Sabato

"I’m very, very bullish about the midterms. I know that we are going to win because we have a great record to run on"

"[MAGA voters] will need to show up at the ballot box; President Trump and Republicans are going to make that happen.”

"If this story is properly told, we should win the Midterm Elections in RECORD NUMBERS."

"[Trump voters] won’t turn out to vote for a typical congressman in a midterm when Trump isn’t running."

“If we [GOP] are where we are today in the beginning of the second quarter [of 2026], then I think we’re in for a really rough time in November.”

“If we fail to pass legislation that permanently secures the border, addresses the affordability crisis, improves healthcare, and restores law and order, we [GOP] will lose this majority.”

“Our best shot was the first 6-9 months. And when Republicans likely lose the midterms it will become total and complete political war and gridlock once again.”

"I think we will win them back, probably all of them, maybe more, in this election, and Hakeem Jeffries will be the speaker of the House."

"Next [2026] year when we will take back control of the House of Representatives."

“He’s going to definitely deal with a Democratic House. I think it’s more likely that he’ll be dealing with a Democratic Senate.”

Will the Republicans Lose Control of Either Houses of Congress in the 2026 U.S. Midterm Elections?

Wendy R. Weiser

Marc Elias

Harmeet Dhillon

Christopher Scott Murphy

Brian Krassenstein

Democracy Docket

The Atlantic

Robert Sprague

Richard K. Sherwin

Ann Vandersteel

Michael Whatley

Pippa Norris

Ben Worthy

Garry Kasparov

ChrisO_wiki

Morgan J. Freeman

Michael Waldman

The News & Observer

Carly Koppes

Shenna Bellows

"It is Trump’s attempts to control parts of the electoral system, combined with the Big Lie, which gives Trump’s movement the motive and ability to ensure elections are neither free nor fair in 2026."

"But I also think [2026 midterms] will be sabotaged with gerrymandering, violations of voters rights and denial."

“I believe that there’s no guarantee that we are going to have a free and fair election in 2026.”

"If we want free and fair elections in 2026, the time to act is now."

"I am confident we will have safe, free and secure elections in 2026, but it is going to be up to state and local election officials because the federal government right now is not being supportive and indeed is targeting election officials."

"President Trump’s soon to be signed EO on elections will [e]nsure we have free and fair [2026 midterm] elections."

"Our [RNC] efforts ensured that the right rules were put in place before election day to guarantee safe and secure elections in 2024, and we intend to do the same in 2026."

"It is the policy of my Administration to enforce Federal law and to protect the integrity of our election process."

Will the 2026 U.S. Midterm Elections be Considered "Free and Fair"?

Richard Hasen

American Civil Liberties Union

Tom Fitton

Biden Department of Justice

Joe Gruters

Kimberly Jones Merchant

Vikram D. Amar

Andrew Oldham

Jason Snead

Lynn Fitch

Louis Guirola Jr.

Snell & Wilmer

James E. Graves Jr.

Richard H. Bernstein

Michael Watson

"When adopting UOCAVA and the MOVE Act, Congress declined to specify a ballot receipt deadline,
expressly deferring instead to individual state laws."

"Federal law does not mandate that ballots be received by state officials before Election Day's conclusion, and the panel's contrary holding is erroneous."

"The Fifth Circuit’s analysis runs counter to the plain text of the federal laws it interprets."

"We think there is a good chance the Supreme Court will undertake review, and reverse the Fifth Circuit so that the ruling won’t have any effect even in the states covered by the Fifth Circuit."

“Congress set a national election day to avoid the ‘evils’ of burdening citizens with multiple election days and of risking undue influence upon voters in one state from the announced tallies in states voting earlier. Neither of those concerns,” he concluded, “is raised by allowing a reasonable interval for ballots cast and postmarked by election day to arrive by mail.”

“Federal law requires voters to take timely steps to vote by Election Day,”

"Fifth Circuit’s interpretation will require Mississippi to amend or abandon its five-business-day receipt grace period for federal races and will likely call into question similar laws in other states that allow ballots to arrive after election day."

"The Supreme Court should uphold the historic decision by the Fifth Circuit that sensibly concluded that counting ballots received after Election Day is unlawful.”

"Federal law clearly says that ballots must be received by Election Day."

Will the U.S. Supreme Court Conclude Mail-In Ballots Cannot be Counted After Election Day?

Karoline Leavitt

David Becker

Michael S. Kang

Rick Hasen

Brennan Center for Justice

Lisa Kashinsky

Richard H. Pildes

Debra Cleaver

Protect Democracy

Michael Schwarz

James Gardner

"The president does not have direct executive power over elections to ban mail voting."

"The president does not have any legal authority over the administration of mail voting."

"The President plays literally no role in elections, and that's by design of the founders."

“The President has no power constitutionally to dictate to states the manner in which they conduct national elections."

"[Trump's mail-in ballot ban] would violate the Constitution and is a major step to prevent free and fair elections."

"[Trump] would need the cooperation of Congress [to ban mail-in ballots], which I think he'd be unlikely to get to have any kind of federal interference with how the midterm elections will be run."

"While the attorney general does not have the authority to prevent states from following their own laws for counting ballots, this command sets up a potential conflict between the federal government and the states over the counting of ballots in the days after Election Day."

"[Trump] might soon announce a long-promised executive order on the subject."

“The White House is working on an executive order to strengthen our elections in this country, and to ensure that there cannot be blatant fraud, as we’ve seen in California, with their universal mail-in voting system."

"I’m going to do an executive order ending vote by mail.'”

Will Trump Ban US States From Using Mail-In Ballots by the 2026 Midterm Elections?

Democrat Emily Gregory defeated Trump-endorsed Republican Jon Maples in a special election for Florida's House District 87, which includes Trump's Mar-a-Lago estate. Gregory, a first-time candidate, won with 51% of the vote to Maples' 49%.

FOX News

Democrat Emily Gregory defeated Trump-endorsed Republican Jon Maples in a special election for Florida's House District 87, which includes Trump's Mar-a-Lago estate. Gregory, a first-time candidate, won with 51% of the vote to Maples' 49%.

The district had been vacant since August 2025, when Republican Mike Caruso resigned to become Palm Beach County clerk. Caruso had won the seat by 19 percentage points in 2024, and Trump carried the district by roughly 10 points that same year.

New York Post

The district had been vacant since August 2025, when Republican Mike Caruso resigned to become Palm Beach County clerk. Caruso had won the seat by 19 percentage points in 2024, and Trump carried the district by roughly 10 points that same year.

Gregory, a 40-year-old Army spouse and fitness business owner, focused her campaign on affordability, public education, property insurance and housing costs, and access to health care. Maples, a financial planner, ran on cutting taxes and reducing regulations.

Daily Mail

Gregory, a 40-year-old Army spouse and fitness business owner, focused her campaign on affordability, public education, property insurance and housing costs, and access to health care. Maples, a financial planner, ran on cutting taxes and reducing regulations.

Florida's 87th District is the 10th GOP-held state legislative seat Democrats have flipped since Trump returned to office. Democrats have not lost any state legislative seats to Republicans during that same period, according to NBC News.

Florida's 87th District is the 10th GOP-held state legislative seat Democrats have flipped since Trump returned to office. Democrats have not lost any state legislative seats to Republicans during that same period, according to NBC News.

Trump voted by mail in the special election, despite publicly calling the practice "mail-in cheating" at an event in Memphis the day before. State records show first lady Melania Trump and Barron Trump also cast mail-in ballots in the race.

Trump voted by mail in the special election, despite publicly calling the practice "mail-in cheating" at an event in Memphis the day before. State records show first lady Melania Trump and Barron Trump also cast mail-in ballots in the race.

The Republican National Committee said the result was "a snapshot of local quirks, candidate dynamics, and turnout math — not some grand verdict." Democrats, meanwhile, said it was the 29th district flipped from GOP control since Trump took office.

The Republican National Committee said the result was "a snapshot of local quirks, candidate dynamics, and turnout math — not some grand verdict." Democrats, meanwhile, said it was the 29th district flipped from GOP control since Trump took office.

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US Election: Project 2025

Democrat flips Florida state House seat in district that includes Mar-a-Lago, defeating Trump-backed GOP rival

Democrat flips Florida state House seat in district that includes Mar-a-Lago, defeating Trump-backed GOP rival

Democrat Flips Trump's Backyard in Florida Special Election

Democrat flipsFlips FloridaTrump's stateBackyard House seat in districtFlorida thatSpecial includes Mar-a-Lago, defeating Trump-backed GOP rivalElection

The Controversies

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Greene

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Worthy

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Murphy

Docket

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Vandersteel

Whatley

Trump

Justice

Jr.

Elias

Amar

Jr.

Oldham

Wilmer

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Democrat Flips Trump's Backyard in Florida Special Election

Democrat flipsFlips FloridaTrump's stateBackyard House seat in districtFlorida thatSpecial includes Mar-a-Lago, defeating Trump-backed GOP rivalElection

The Controversies

Johnson

RNC

Trump

DeSantis

Tillis

Mace

Greene

Pelosi

Jeffries

Worthy

Krassenstein

Murphy

Docket

Bellows

Vandersteel

Whatley

Trump

Justice

Jr.

Elias

Amar

Jr.

Oldham

Wilmer

Fitton

Snead

Kang

Becker

Pildes

Hasen

Justice

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Leavitt

Trump

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