This war was started without a clear exit strategy, and now Trump is trapped — either bomb Iran into submission or negotiate with an adversary that holds more leverage than before the fighting began. Closing Hormuz has handed Iran asymmetric power that can't be unlearned, and threatening power plants won't break men who've fought human-wave wars for decades. The oil shock is already bigger than the 1970s crises, gas is near four dollars and climbing, and there's no quick fix in sight.
Diplomacy is working — Trump's five-day pause on strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure came after productive talks, and oil prices dropped 12% the moment the announcement landed. Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are at the table pushing for a deal that ends nuclear enrichment and reopens Hormuz, which is exactly what the region needs. Pausing military pressure to give negotiations a real shot isn't weakness — it's smart dealmaking that could end a devastating oil shock fast.
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