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The military buildup represents dangerous escalation when diplomatic solutions remain available, with Iran signaling willingness to negotiate and key US allies refusing airspace access for strikes. Trump himself acknowledged Iran wants to talk and backed away from immediate action, while regional partners emphasize dialogue over military intervention that could destabilize the entire Middle East.
There is a 51% chance that the United States will attack Iran before April 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
In light of the US fleet's arrival in the strategic Strait of Hormuz, Iran has taken the precaution of restricting airspace in the region for live-fire drills set to take place from January 27 to January 29. Iran has made it clear that any attempts by the US and Israel to alter its governing system would trigger a "swift and comprehensive" response. This situation highlights the seriousness of the current geopolitical climate and the potential repercussions of any military actions.
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