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Donald Trump

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"China has zero interest to invade Taiwan and has never threatened to invade Taiwan."

“I think we’ll be just fine with China. China doesn’t want to do that [invade Taiwan].”

"There's no indications or warnings of anything imminent [China attacking Taiwan] at this time."

a P.L.A. takeover of Taiwan is not inevitable nor, perhaps, even likely in the next few years."

"I wouldn't say war is likely in the next few years, but I wouldn't say it's unlikely over the next couple of decades."

"I think they (the Chinese) have intention, but absolutely I think we can get to the end of this decade without them committing major aggression against Taiwan."

"[T]here might indeed be some greater willingness by Beijing to coerce (or even invade) Taiwan during a Trump administration."

"An invasion of Taiwan could happen within this decade."

"Global Guardian thinks that the window for conflict or a blockade is now open, with that window most likely remaining open between 2024 and 2028."

"The idea is that anything we are working on, anything that we are investing in, needs to be built with the assumption that sometime in 2027, China is going to move on Taiwan."

“Taiwan is clearly one of [China's] ambitions before that and I think the threat is manifest during this decade — in fact, in the next six years.”

Will China Invade Taiwan by 2030?

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"I argue that war is unlikely to occur due to the deep economic ties underlying the great power politics between the two countries."

"War with either [Russia or China] is neither inevitable nor imminent."

"As things currently stand, the US is not prepared to fight and win a war with China over Taiwan."

"A war between the US and China today is no more inevitable than was war between the rising US and the declining United Kingdom a century ago."

"[T]he tension between the United States and China will grow, and competition will intensify; it is inevitable. War, however, is not."

"War is a risk, but it is not inevitable."

"The risk of a military conflict is very serious."

"The smallest misstep by either side [Taipei and Beijing] could ignite a U.S.-China war."

"China is preparing for a war and specifically for a war with the United States."

"The most proximate potential timeframe for war is in the next two years."

"My gut tells me we [the US] will fight [with China] in 2025."

Will There Be a US-China War?

China's defense ministry announced on Saturday that Zhang Youxia, a member of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee and vice chairman of the Central Military Commission, is under investigation for suspected serious discipline and law violations.

China's defense ministry announced on Saturday that Zhang Youxia, a member of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee and vice chairman of the Central Military Commission, is under investigation for suspected serious discipline and law violations.

Liu Zhenli, chief of staff of the Central Military Commission Joint Staff Department, has also been placed under investigation. The decision to investigate both officials was made by the Communist Party Central Committee.

Liu Zhenli, chief of staff of the Central Military Commission Joint Staff Department, has also been placed under investigation. The decision to investigate both officials was made by the Communist Party Central Committee.

Zhang Youxia, 75, and Liu Zhenli, 61, are decorated war heroes who both participated in military campaigns against Vietnam in the late 1970s and are the only members of the seven-strong Central Military Commission with combat experience.

Zhang Youxia, 75, and Liu Zhenli, 61, are decorated war heroes who both participated in military campaigns against Vietnam in the late 1970s and are the only members of the seven-strong Central Military Commission with combat experience.

The investigation leaves Zhang Shengmin as the only uniformed official on the commission after former vice-chairman He Weidong and top ideological chief Miao Hua were removed in October over corruption investigations.

The investigation leaves Zhang Shengmin as the only uniformed official on the commission after former vice-chairman He Weidong and top ideological chief Miao Hua were removed in October over corruption investigations.

Since 2023, many top generals have been stripped of their positions and put under investigation, including officers from multiple branches and dozens of senior executives from China's arms suppliers.

Since 2023, many top generals have been stripped of their positions and put under investigation, including officers from multiple branches and dozens of senior executives from China's arms suppliers.

The disciplinary agencies punished 983,000 officials last year, an 11 percent increase from 2024 and the highest annual total since the party started releasing such data about two decades ago.

The disciplinary agencies punished 983,000 officials last year, an 11 percent increase from 2024 and the highest annual total since the party started releasing such data about two decades ago.

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The US-China Conflict

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