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"China has zero interest to invade Taiwan and has never threatened to invade Taiwan."

“I think we’ll be just fine with China. China doesn’t want to do that [invade Taiwan].”

"There's no indications or warnings of anything imminent [China attacking Taiwan] at this time."

a P.L.A. takeover of Taiwan is not inevitable nor, perhaps, even likely in the next few years."

"I wouldn't say war is likely in the next few years, but I wouldn't say it's unlikely over the next couple of decades."

"I think they (the Chinese) have intention, but absolutely I think we can get to the end of this decade without them committing major aggression against Taiwan."

"[T]here might indeed be some greater willingness by Beijing to coerce (or even invade) Taiwan during a Trump administration."

"An invasion of Taiwan could happen within this decade."

"Global Guardian thinks that the window for conflict or a blockade is now open, with that window most likely remaining open between 2024 and 2028."

"The idea is that anything we are working on, anything that we are investing in, needs to be built with the assumption that sometime in 2027, China is going to move on Taiwan."

“Taiwan is clearly one of [China's] ambitions before that and I think the threat is manifest during this decade — in fact, in the next six years.”

Will China Invade Taiwan by 2030?

Three activists and their now-disbanded organization went on trial in Hong Kong on January 22, 2026, facing charges of inciting subversion under the Beijing-imposed national security law. Lee Cheuk-yan, Albert Ho and Chow Hang-tung face up to 10 years in prison if convicted.

Three activists and their now-disbanded organization went on trial in Hong Kong on January 22, 2026, facing charges of inciting subversion under the Beijing-imposed national security law. Lee Cheuk-yan, Albert Ho and Chow Hang-tung face up to 10 years in prison if convicted.

Lee Cheuk-yan and Chow Hang-tung pleaded not guilty to the charge, while Albert Ho entered a guilty plea. The prosecution argued that the Hong Kong Alliance's goal of ending one-party rule violated China's constitution, which stipulates that Communist Party leadership is a defining feature of the nation's system.

Lee Cheuk-yan and Chow Hang-tung pleaded not guilty to the charge, while Albert Ho entered a guilty plea. The prosecution argued that the Hong Kong Alliance's goal of ending one-party rule violated China's constitution, which stipulates that Communist Party leadership is a defining feature of the nation's system.

The Hong Kong Alliance in Support of Patriotic Democratic Movements of China organized annual vigils in Victoria Park for over three decades to commemorate the 1989 Tiananmen Square crackdown. The vigils were banned in 2020 citing Covid-19 policies and have not resumed since.

The Hong Kong Alliance in Support of Patriotic Democratic Movements of China organized annual vigils in Victoria Park for over three decades to commemorate the 1989 Tiananmen Square crackdown. The vigils were banned in 2020 citing Covid-19 policies and have not resumed since.

Prosecutor Ned Lai stated there are no lawful means to end the leadership of the Chinese Communist Party, arguing the Alliance incited subversion by promoting this goal through speeches, museum exhibitions and recruitment activities after the national security law took effect in June 2020.

Prosecutor Ned Lai stated there are no lawful means to end the leadership of the Chinese Communist Party, arguing the Alliance incited subversion by promoting this goal through speeches, museum exhibitions and recruitment activities after the national security law took effect in June 2020.

Dozens of people queued overnight outside the West Kowloon Law Courts Building despite cold weather to observe the proceedings. Tang Ngok-kwan, a former Alliance member, waited for several days to secure a seat in the courtroom, stating that justice resides in the hearts of the people.

Dozens of people queued overnight outside the West Kowloon Law Courts Building despite cold weather to observe the proceedings. Tang Ngok-kwan, a former Alliance member, waited for several days to secure a seat in the courtroom, stating that justice resides in the hearts of the people.

The trial is presided over by three judges designated to handle national security cases and is expected to last 75 days. Judge Alex Lee said the court will handle an application from Chow regarding overseas witnesses on Friday, after previously rejecting her request for virtual testimony.

The trial is presided over by three judges designated to handle national security cases and is expected to last 75 days. Judge Alex Lee said the court will handle an application from Chow regarding overseas witnesses on Friday, after previously rejecting her request for virtual testimony.

Hong Kong Activists Face Subversion Trial Over Tiananmen

Hong Kong pro-democracyActivists trialFace Subversion Trial Over Tiananmen

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Hong Kong Activists Face Subversion Trial Over Tiananmen

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