Muhammad Yunus's interim government has made historic progress by launching multiple reform commissions to rebuild democratic institutions, restore basic freedoms after years of authoritarian rule and prepare for free and fair elections plus a constitutional referendum. His international stature has helped secure foreign support and attention to critical issues, while his economic efforts have delivered the most consequential banking reforms since the 1990s. Together, these achievements mark a decisive break from the past and position the country on a credible path toward democratic renewal and economic stability.
In the aftermath of the July 2024 violence, the nation expected reconciliation and institutional repair rather than coercion. Instead, an unelected interim regime is pressing ahead with a February referendum to legitimize an unconstitutional July Charter, while engaging in arbitrary detentions, weaponizing legal processes against journalists and normalizing extremist groups. The regime has failed to curb mob violence, politicized law enforcement and pushed the economy to the brink with job losses and factory closures. The government has failed to stabilize basic indicators or chart a credible recovery.
There's a 2% chance that Bangladesh's former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina will return from exile before 2028, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
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