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"By banning the export of EUV, China will lag 10 to 15 years behind the West [in producing 5nm]."

“We don’t have any evidence that they [Chinese] can manufacture seven-nanometer at scale [let alone 5nm].”

"We will not get 3nm, and we will not get 5nm. It would be very, very good if we could solve 7nm."

“Quite unlikely, at least in the next five years.”

"Perhaps next year Pura/Mate smartphones and Matepad tablets could surprise consumers with a more powerful and efficient [5nm] Kirin chipset."

"If nothing changes with current restrictions, we expect Huawei and SMIC to have a true 5nm based chip in 2025 or 2026 with large scale AI chips not so long after."

"The US can't stop Huawei and SMIC from making progress in chip technology, in fact, they already have the machines to get to 5 nanometers [by 2026]."

"China may be able to produce 5nm chips by the end of [2025]."

“If SMIC is keeping pace, probably about two years [2025].”

"5nm chips have been in production since December 2024."

Will China Produce Any Volume of Functional 5nm Chips by 2026?

The Trump administration formally approved the export of NVIDIA's H200 AI chips to China on Tuesday, easing controls that the U.S. government imposed on the semiconductors due to Washington's national security concerns.

The Trump administration formally approved the export of NVIDIA's H200 AI chips to China on Tuesday, easing controls that the U.S. government imposed on the semiconductors due to Washington's national security concerns.

U.S. President Donald Trump first announced the shift in U.S. policy in December 2025, stating at the time that the U.S. would export the chips to "approved customers" in China under "strong" national security conditions, with the U.S. to collect a 25% fee from the sales.

U.S. President Donald Trump first announced the shift in U.S. policy in December 2025, stating at the time that the U.S. would export the chips to "approved customers" in China under "strong" national security conditions, with the U.S. to collect a 25% fee from the sales.

In a regulation published on Tuesday, the Department of Commerce's Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) stated that it henceforth review export license applications for H200 chips and their equivalents on a case-by-case basis, from its previous presumption of denial.

In a regulation published on Tuesday, the Department of Commerce's Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) stated that it henceforth review export license applications for H200 chips and their equivalents on a case-by-case basis, from its previous presumption of denial.

Under the new regulations, advanced chips, such as NVIDIA's H200, will only be considered for export to China if the semiconductors are available for sale in the U.S. and if the BIS deems there is sufficient supply for American customers.

Under the new regulations, advanced chips, such as NVIDIA's H200, will only be considered for export to China if the semiconductors are available for sale in the U.S. and if the BIS deems there is sufficient supply for American customers.

Additionally, Chinese buyers will not be allowed to acquire more than 50% of the total volume of advanced semiconductors sold in the U.S. The chips must also undergo third-party testing to verify their performance specifications before being exported to China and Macau.

Additionally, Chinese buyers will not be allowed to acquire more than 50% of the total volume of advanced semiconductors sold in the U.S. The chips must also undergo third-party testing to verify their performance specifications before being exported to China and Macau.

The developments follow the passage of the Remote Access Security Act in the House of Representatives on Monday, which expands the federal government's authority to restrict foreign access to U.S. technologies such as semiconductors through the internet or cloud computing services.

The developments follow the passage of the Remote Access Security Act in the House of Representatives on Monday, which expands the federal government's authority to restrict foreign access to U.S. technologies such as semiconductors through the internet or cloud computing services.

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The Trump administration formally approved the export of Nvidia's H200 artificial intelligence chips to China, shifting U.S. technology export controls after years of restrictions. The Commerce Department will review export applications on a case-by-case basis.

The Trump administration formally approved the export of Nvidia's H200 artificial intelligence chips to China, shifting U.S. technology export controls after years of restrictions. The Commerce Department will review export applications on a case-by-case basis.

Under the new regulations, Chinese buyers cannot receive more than 50% of the total volume of H200 chips sold to U.S. customers. The chips must undergo third-party testing in the United States to verify their performance specifications before export.

Under the new regulations, Chinese buyers cannot receive more than 50% of the total volume of H200 chips sold to U.S. customers. The chips must undergo third-party testing in the United States to verify their performance specifications before export.

Chinese technology firms have placed orders for more than two million H200 chips, far exceeding Nvidia's current inventory of around 700,000 units. Nvidia welcomed the decision, stating it would benefit manufacturing and jobs in the United States.

Chinese technology firms have placed orders for more than two million H200 chips, far exceeding Nvidia's current inventory of around 700,000 units. Nvidia welcomed the decision, stating it would benefit manufacturing and jobs in the United States.

President Donald Trump announced the decision would include a 25% fee payable to the U.S. government. Trump stated the policy would protect national security, create American jobs and keep America's lead in AI, adding that President Xi responded positively.

President Donald Trump announced the decision would include a 25% fee payable to the U.S. government. Trump stated the policy would protect national security, create American jobs and keep America's lead in AI, adding that President Xi responded positively.

The House of Representatives passed the Remote Access Security Act, a bipartisan bill that expands federal authority to restrict foreign adversaries' ability to access technologies remotely through cloud computing services, addressing concerns about export control evasion.

The House of Representatives passed the Remote Access Security Act, a bipartisan bill that expands federal authority to restrict foreign adversaries' ability to access technologies remotely through cloud computing services, addressing concerns about export control evasion.

Critics across the U.S. political spectrum voiced concern that the move undermines efforts to preserve America's advantage in artificial intelligence. Beijing's embassy spokesman said China opposes the politicization of tech and trade issues.

Critics across the U.S. political spectrum voiced concern that the move undermines efforts to preserve America's advantage in artificial intelligence. Beijing's embassy spokesman said China opposes the politicization of tech and trade issues.

Allowing Nvidia to export H200 chips to China represents a dangerous betrayal of American interests and national security. This decision abandons the America First principle by handing advanced technology to our greatest geopolitical rival, demonstrating weakness rather than strength in the face of Chinese competition. What should be strategic leverage in the art of dealmaking has devolved into unilateral surrender, gifting China the very tools needed to challenge American technological dominance.

Allowing Nvidia to export H200 chips to China represents a dangerous betrayal of American interests and national security. This decision abandons the America First principle by handing advanced technology to our greatest geopolitical rival, demonstrating weakness rather than strength in the face of Chinese competition. What should be strategic leverage in the art of dealmaking has devolved into unilateral surrender, gifting China the very tools needed to challenge American technological dominance.

Michael Sobolik

The revised export policy for H200 chips strikes the right balance between security and economic reality through rigorous safeguards. By requiring certification of sufficient domestic supply, preventing diversion of foundry capacity from U.S. end users, mandating robust security procedures, and enforcing independent third-party testing, this approach protects American interests while maintaining commercial viability. The case-by-case review process ensures careful scrutiny rather than blanket restrictions that could harm U.S. semiconductor companies.

The revised export policy for H200 chips strikes the right balance between security and economic reality through rigorous safeguards. By requiring certification of sufficient domestic supply, preventing diversion of foundry capacity from U.S. end users, mandating robust security procedures, and enforcing independent third-party testing, this approach protects American interests while maintaining commercial viability. The case-by-case review process ensures careful scrutiny rather than blanket restrictions that could harm U.S. semiconductor companies.

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Trump Approves Nvidia H200 AI Chip Exports to China

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China

The BIS's revised export policy strikes the right balance between national security and economic reality through its rigorous standards. By requiring certification of sufficient domestic supply and mandating robust security procedures, this approach protects key American interests while maintaining the commercial viability of its technology sector by permitting it to trade with China.

The BIS's revised export policy strikes the right balance between national security and economic reality through its rigorous standards. By requiring certification of sufficient domestic supply and mandating robust security procedures, this approach protects key American interests while maintaining the commercial viability of its technology sector by permitting it to trade with China.

Allowing NVIDIA to export H200 chips to China is a dangerous betrayal of American interests and national security. The decision abandons the administration's America First principles by handing coveted U.S. technology to its greatest geopolitical rival, reducing America's lead in the AI race while simultaneously strengthening China's technological capabilities and military power.

Allowing NVIDIA to export H200 chips to China is a dangerous betrayal of American interests and national security. The decision abandons the administration's America First principles by handing coveted U.S. technology to its greatest geopolitical rival, reducing America's lead in the AI race while simultaneously strengthening China's technological capabilities and military power.

There is a 3% chance that any NVIDIA GPUs better than the H200 will be allowed to be exported to China before March 14, 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

There is a 3% chance that any NVIDIA GPUs better than the H200 will be allowed to be exported to China before March 14, 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

US Approves Nvidia H200 AI Chip Exports to China

TrumpUS Approves Nvidia H200 AI Chip Exports to China

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