US Approves Nvidia H200 AI Chip Exports to China

Is the BIS' decision a balanced policy with proper safeguards or a dangerous betrayal of American interests?

Published JAN 14

US Approves Nvidia H200 AI Chip Exports to China

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Above: A NVIDIA AI chip in Hangzhou, China, on Dec. 9. Image credit: CFOTO/Future Publishing Getty Image

The Spin

Pro-government narrative

The BIS's revised export policy strikes the right balance between national security and economic reality through its rigorous standards. By requiring certification of sufficient domestic supply and mandating robust security procedures, this approach protects key American interests while maintaining the commercial viability of its technology sector by permitting it to trade with China.

Federal Register

Government-critical narrative

Allowing NVIDIA to export H200 chips to China is a dangerous betrayal of American interests and national security. The decision abandons the administration's America First principles by handing coveted U.S. technology to its greatest geopolitical rival, reducing America's lead in the AI race while simultaneously strengthening China's technological capabilities and military power.

Michael Sobolik on X Council on Foreign Relations

Metaculus Prediction

There is a 4% chance that any NVIDIA GPUs better than the H200 will be allowed to be exported to China before March 14, 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.