All to play for: Israels recognition of Somaliland
Martin Plaut website2 days
Israeli Foreign Minister Visits Somaliland After Recognition
Does Gideon Sa'ar's visit to Somaliland mark a democratic breakthrough, or risk regional instability for Israel's strategic interests?
Above: Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar speaks during a joint press conference with his Hungarian counterpart at the Foreign Minister's office in Budapest, on Sept. 8, 2025. Image credit: Attila Kisbenedek/AFP/Getty Images
The Spin
Pro-Israel narrative
The visit of Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar to Hargeisa signals that Israel's recognition of Somaliland is strategic, not symbolic. It marks a long-overdue correction for a functioning democracy denied statehood for over three decades. Somaliland has built stable institutions, held elections and maintained security, while Somalia remains mired in corruption and terrorism. The partnership strengthens Red Sea cooperation and affirms the people's right to self-determination.
Anti-Israel narrative
The visit of Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar to Hargeisa lays bare the risks of recognizing Somaliland. The move violates international law and directly undermines Somalia's territorial integrity. By legitimizing secession, it emboldens separatist movements across Africa and destabilizes an already fragile region. Placing a disputed entity in the Red Sea corridor risks inviting militant groups like al-Shabab and escalating wider regional confrontation.
Metaculus Prediction
There is a 98% chance that Israel will exist as a country on Jan. 1, 2060, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Public Figures
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© 2026 Improve the News Foundation.
All rights reserved.
Version 6.18.0