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Study: 75% of US Adults Obese Under New Waist-Based Criteria

Is BMI a flawed metric creating misdiagnoses, or does waist-to-height ratio reveal the true metabolic crisis?
Study: 75% of US Adults Obese Under New Waist-Based Criteria
Image credit: Bill Uhrich/MediaNews Group/Reading Eagle/Getty Images

The Spin

Narrative A

BMI is the standard measure for determining obesity. Yet, the waist-to-height ratio reveals the true scope of America's metabolic crisis that BMI measurements miss entirely. When the waist exceeds half the height, the risk of insulin resistance, fatty liver, and heart disease skyrockets, regardless of weight. Expanding obesity criteria to include body fat distribution identifies 75% of adults facing real health dangers.

Narrative B

Obesity diagnosis has become a mess because BMI was never meant to diagnose disease, and it can't tell who's actually sick. Relying on this flawed metric creates millions of misdiagnoses, labeling healthy muscular people as diseased while missing thin people with dangerous organ fat who desperately need treatment. Medicine must finally define what obesity illness actually is beyond just body size.

Metaculus Prediction

There's a 50% chance that at least 68.5% of Americans will be obese or overweight in 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


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© 2026 Improve the News Foundation. All rights reserved.Version 6.18.0

© 2026 Improve the News Foundation.

All rights reserved.

Version 6.18.0