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Snapshot 6:Tue, Dec 30, 2025 3:36:16 PM GMT last edited by Nick

Russia Deploys Oreshnik Missile System to Belarus

Russia Deploys Oreshnik Missile System to Belarus

Is the Oreshnik deployment an unacceptable threat to Europe, or a legitimate response to NATO expansion?
Russia Deploys Oreshnik Missile System to Belarus
Above: A screen grab from a video shows the installation of the Oreshnik missile system in Belarus on Dec. 30, 2025. Image credit: Russian Defense Ministry/Anadolu/Getty Images

The Spin

Deploying nuclear-capable Oreshnik missiles to Belarus puts European capitals directly in the crosshairs and signifies an unacceptable escalation. This military asset poses an immediate threat that demands action. The system must be destroyed before it further endangers allied security.

The Oreshnik deployment fulfills legitimate security agreements between Russia and Belarus under their Union State treaty. This advanced hypersonic system ensures strategic parity against Western military expansion. The placement directly responds to aggressive NATO actions near Russian borders.

The Oreshnik deployment is symbolic, not strategic. There is zero military advantage in placing systems in Belarus instead of Russia, and it offers no added capability. The deployment serves politics alone, signaling pressure and alliance loyalty rather than improving battlefield effectiveness.

Metaculus Prediction

There's a 0.1% chance that Russia will detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.



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© 2026 Improve the News Foundation.

All rights reserved.

Version 6.18.0