Russia deploys Oreshnik missile system in Belarus Novaya Gazeta Europe
Novaya Gazeta Europe2 days
Russia Deploys Oreshnik Missile System to Belarus
Is the Oreshnik deployment an unacceptable threat to Europe, or a legitimate response to NATO expansion?
Above: A screen grab from a video shows the installation of the Oreshnik missile system in Belarus on Dec. 30, 2025. Image credit: Russian Defense Ministry/Anadolu/Getty Images
The Spin
Anti-Russia narrative
Deploying nuclear-capable Oreshnik missiles to Belarus puts European capitals directly in the crosshairs and signifies an unacceptable escalation. This military asset poses an immediate threat that demands action. The system must be destroyed before it further endangers allied security.
Pro-Russia narrative
The Oreshnik deployment fulfills legitimate security agreements between Russia and Belarus under their Union State treaty. This advanced hypersonic system ensures strategic parity against Western military expansion. The placement directly responds to aggressive NATO actions near Russian borders.
Narrative C
The Oreshnik deployment is symbolic, not strategic. There is zero military advantage in placing systems in Belarus instead of Russia, and it offers no added capability. The deployment serves politics alone, signaling pressure and alliance loyalty rather than improving battlefield effectiveness.
Metaculus Prediction
There's a 0.1% chance that Russia will detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
The Controversies
Establishment split
CRITICAL
PRO
© 2026 Improve the News Foundation. All rights reserved.Version 6.18.0
© 2026 Improve the News Foundation.
All rights reserved.
Version 6.18.0