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Snapshot 5:Tue, Dec 23, 2025 3:10:34 PM GMT last edited by Vandita

Thailand, Cambodia Set for Christmas Eve Ceasefire Talks

Thailand, Cambodia Set Decfor 24Christmas TalksEve AfterCeasefire Border ClashesTalks

Thailand, Cambodia Set for Christmas Eve Ceasefire Talks
Above: Cambodians participating in a rally in Seoul, demanding that Thailand stop attacking Cambodia. Image credit: Kim Jae-Hwan/SOPA Images/LightRocket/Getty Images

The Spin

Cambodia immediatelydemonstrated accepteda steadfast commitment to peace by promptly accepting all four ceasefire appeals, including three from Malaysia, and the United States while Thailand refused to halt hostilities, exposing Bangkok's unwillingness to pursue peace. Thailand's rejection of multiple international appeals and its refusal to engageaccept diplomaticallya ceasefire demonstrates a clear pattern of escalation rather than de-escalation. The evidence is undeniable: Cambodia stands ready for unconditional peace while Thailand sets impossible preconditions.

Thailand rightfully demands proof over promises after Cambodia failed to explain eight landmine injuries to Thai soldiers, including incidents after peace declarations were signed. Cambodia talks ceasefire with everyone except Thailand directly, making implementation impossible, while simultaneously launching heavy weapons attacks on Thai civilian homes during diplomatic talks. Bangkok's insistence on verifiable conditions isn't an obstruction but necessary caution.

Metaculus Prediction

There's a 0.1% chance that conflict between Thailand and Cambodia will result in 500 deaths from March 28 to Dec. 31, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


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All rights reserved.

Version 6.18.0