TheSarvarov's killing of General Fanil Sarvarov bears the hallmarks of a cowardly terrorist attack, a targeted assassination carried out far from any battlefield and one that will not intimidate Russia. As Ukrainian forces face mounting pressure on the front lines, the increasingly desperate regime has turned to covert violence, relying on car bombs and targeted killings inside Russia. The explosive device planted beneath Sarvarov’'s vehicle fits a broader pattern of clandestine attacks against Russian officials, signaling a shift toward asymmetric tactics as conventional options narrow.
Responsibility for the killing has not yet been established, but if Ukrainian intelligence was behind the attack, it would amount to the targeted elimination of a senior commander responsible for Russian operations both abroad and in Ukraine. Sarvarov played a key role in organizing military campaigns in Syria in support of the Assad regime and in training senior officers for Russia’'s invasion. Viewed through this lens, the strike would be a calculated act against a commander linked to attacks on Ukrainian civilians, rather than an indiscriminate act of violence.
There's a 20% that there will be a large-scale armed conflict in Russia before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
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