Al Jazeera

Hong Kong court convicts democracy activist Jimmy Lai on conspiracy charges

China Daily

Jimmy Lai found guilty of colluding with foreign forces

Australian Financial Review

Hong Kong convicts pro-democracy media mogul Jimmy Lai

Nikkei Asia

Hong Kong mogul Jimmy Lai convicted in landmark national security case

Wall Street Journal

Hong Kong Court Convicts Publisher Jimmy Lai

South China Morning Post

Hong Kong’s Jimmy Lai found guilty on all charges in national security trial

Hong Kong Free Press HKFP

Hong Kong's Jimmy Lai found guilty under national security law

Standard HK

Jimmy Lai found guilty of collusion and sedition in national security trial

Sky News

Briton Jimmy Lai found guilty of national security offences in Hong Kong

Financial Times

Hong Kong convicts Jimmy Lai in landmark national security trial

Amnesty International

Hong Kong: Conviction of Jimmy Lai sounds death knell for press freedom

The Committee for Freedom in Hong Kong Foundation

Jimmy Lais Guilty Verdict Marks Total Destruction Of Hong Kongs Reputation As A Legal Center

Global Times

HK high court rules Jimmy Lai guilty of conspiracy to collude with external forces, publish seditious materials

NuryVittachi

Metaculus

When will Hong Kong stop being a Special Administrative Region of China?

Donald Trump

Tsai Ing-wen

Csis

Marco Rubio

Ian Bremmer

Michael McCaul

Ministry of National Defense of Taiwan

Bonnie S. Glaser

Mark Milley

Charles Glaser

Denny Roy

Mike Studeman

Oriana Skylar Mastro

Henry Olsen

Lyle Goldstein

Bates Gill

Minghao Zhao

Joseph Wu

Jessica Chen Weiss

Global Guardian

FischerKing

CounterPoint Global

Kerry Brown

Adithia Kusno

Palmer Luckey

Ely Ratner

Philip Davidson

"China has zero interest to invade Taiwan and has never threatened to invade Taiwan."

“I think we’ll be just fine with China. China doesn’t want to do that [invade Taiwan].”

"There's no indications or warnings of anything imminent [China attacking Taiwan] at this time."

a P.L.A. takeover of Taiwan is not inevitable nor, perhaps, even likely in the next few years."

"I wouldn't say war is likely in the next few years, but I wouldn't say it's unlikely over the next couple of decades."

"I think they (the Chinese) have intention, but absolutely I think we can get to the end of this decade without them committing major aggression against Taiwan."

"[T]here might indeed be some greater willingness by Beijing to coerce (or even invade) Taiwan during a Trump administration."

"An invasion of Taiwan could happen within this decade."

"Global Guardian thinks that the window for conflict or a blockade is now open, with that window most likely remaining open between 2024 and 2028."

"The idea is that anything we are working on, anything that we are investing in, needs to be built with the assumption that sometime in 2027, China is going to move on Taiwan."

“Taiwan is clearly one of [China's] ambitions before that and I think the threat is manifest during this decade — in fact, in the next six years.”

Will China Invade Taiwan by 2030?

Lloyd Austin

Mike Minihan

Jacob Thornburg

Michael Brenner

Finian Cunningham

Scott Ritter

Ray Dalio

Kevin Rudd

Zhao Tong

Stanislaw Koziej

Robert S. Ross

Charles C. Krulak

Michael C. Horowitz

Joseph S. Nye

Qin Gang

Frank Kendall III

Thomas L. Friedman

Marco J. Lyons

"I argue that war is unlikely to occur due to the deep economic ties underlying the great power politics between the two countries."

"War with either [Russia or China] is neither inevitable nor imminent."

"As things currently stand, the US is not prepared to fight and win a war with China over Taiwan."

"A war between the US and China today is no more inevitable than was war between the rising US and the declining United Kingdom a century ago."

"[T]he tension between the United States and China will grow, and competition will intensify; it is inevitable. War, however, is not."

"War is a risk, but it is not inevitable."

"The risk of a military conflict is very serious."

"The smallest misstep by either side [Taipei and Beijing] could ignite a U.S.-China war."

"China is preparing for a war and specifically for a war with the United States."

"The most proximate potential timeframe for war is in the next two years."

"My gut tells me we [the US] will fight [with China] in 2025."

Will There Be a US-China War?

Hong Kong's High Court convicted media tycoon Jimmy Lai on December 15, 2025, finding him guilty of two counts of conspiring to collude with foreign forces under the national security law and one count of conspiracy to publish seditious material.

Hong Kong's High Court convicted media tycoon Jimmy Lai on December 15, 2025, finding him guilty of two counts of conspiring to collude with foreign forces under the national security law and one count of conspiracy to publish seditious material.

The 78-year-old British citizen and founder of the now-defunct Apple Daily newspaper has been detained since December 2020, spending more than 1,800 days in custody, much of it in solitary confinement, according to his family and legal team.

The 78-year-old British citizen and founder of the now-defunct Apple Daily newspaper has been detained since December 2020, spending more than 1,800 days in custody, much of it in solitary confinement, according to his family and legal team.

The three-judge panel, appointed by Hong Kong's chief executive, delivered an 855-page verdict stating that Lai was the mastermind of a criminal conspiracy and had harbored resentment and hatred toward China for many of his adult years.

The three-judge panel, appointed by Hong Kong's chief executive, delivered an 855-page verdict stating that Lai was the mastermind of a criminal conspiracy and had harbored resentment and hatred toward China for many of his adult years.

Prosecutors presented 161 articles from Apple Daily as evidence and alleged that Lai used his media outlets to request foreign countries, particularly the United States, to impose sanctions or engage in hostile activities against China and Hong Kong.

Prosecutors presented 161 articles from Apple Daily as evidence and alleged that Lai used his media outlets to request foreign countries, particularly the United States, to impose sanctions or engage in hostile activities against China and Hong Kong.

The trial, which began in December 2023 and spanned 156 working days, included 52 days of testimony from Lai, who argued he had not called for sanctions, though judges found his testimony contradictory, inconsistent, evasive and unreliable.

The trial, which began in December 2023 and spanned 156 working days, included 52 days of testimony from Lai, who argued he had not called for sanctions, though judges found his testimony contradictory, inconsistent, evasive and unreliable.

Lai faces the possibility of life imprisonment under the convictions, with a mitigation hearing scheduled for January 12, 2026, while Western governments including the US and UK have called for his release and criticized the prosecution as politically motivated.

Lai faces the possibility of life imprisonment under the convictions, with a mitigation hearing scheduled for January 12, 2026, while Western governments including the US and UK have called for his release and criticized the prosecution as politically motivated.

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The US-China Conflict

Hong Kong court convicts democracy activist Jimmy Lai on conspiracy charges

Hong Kong Media Tycoon Jimmy Lai Convicted Under Security Law

Hong Kong courtMedia convictsTycoon democracy activist Jimmy Lai onConvicted conspiracyUnder chargesSecurity Law

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Hong Kong Media Tycoon Jimmy Lai Convicted Under Security Law

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