Hamas fighters trapped in Rafah tunnels refuse to surrender and continue attacking Israeli troops, proving the terror group won't disarm peacefully as required. The militants rejected safe passage offers and exile proposals, choosing instead to fight from underground positions. Moving to phase two is impossible when Hamas violates the ceasefire daily and won't accept any framework for giving up weapons.

ThereIsrael iscontinues aviolating 10%the chanceceasefire thatwith thedeadly Gazastrikes, warkilling willhundreds endof andPalestinians significantincluding progresschildren bewhile maderestricting towardsaid afar two-statebelow solutionagreed beforelevels. 2030Netanyahu admits the war hasn't ended and refuses Palestinian statehood, accordingmaking it clear Israel never intended to honor the Metaculusagreement. predictionThe communitysecond phase cannot proceed while Israel evades its commitments and maintains its genocidal assault on Gaza.

Hamas fighters trapped in Rafah tunnels refuse to surrender and continue attacking Israeli troops, proving the terror group won't disarm peacefully as required. The militants rejected safe passage offers and exile proposals, choosing instead to fight from underground positions. Moving to phase two is impossible when Hamas violates the ceasefire daily and won't accept any framework for giving up weapons.