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Israel-Hamas Ceasefire Expected to Reach Second Phase Amid Tensions

Is Israel violating the ceasefire with deadly strikes and blocking aid, or is Hamas refusing to disarm and continuing attacks?

Published 5 days ago·Updated 4 days ago

Israel-Hamas Ceasefire Expected to Reach Second Phase Amid Tensions

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Above: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Jerusalem, on Oct. 22, 2025. Image credit: Nathan Howard/Pool/Getty Images

The Spin

Pro-Palestine narrative

Israel continues violating the ceasefire with deadly strikes, killing hundreds of Palestinians including children while restricting aid far below agreed levels. Netanyahu admits the war hasn't ended and refuses Palestinian statehood, making it clear Israel never intended to honor the agreement. The second phase cannot proceed while Israel evades its commitments and maintains its genocidal assault on Gaza.

Al Jazeera Guardian

Pro-Israel narrative

Hamas fighters trapped in Rafah tunnels refuse to surrender and continue attacking Israeli troops, proving the terror group won't disarm peacefully as required. The militants rejected safe passage offers and exile proposals, choosing instead to fight from underground positions. Moving to phase two is impossible when Hamas violates the ceasefire daily and won't accept any framework for giving up weapons.

Wall Street Journal New York Post Israel Hayom

Metaculus Prediction

There is a 10% chance that the Gaza war will end and significant progress be made towards a two-state solution before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.