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Metaculus

When Will the Russia-Ukraine War End?

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said Wednesday, during a meeting of NATO foreign ministers in Brussels, that U.S. President Donald Trump was the "only person" who could break the deadlock in efforts to end the war in Ukraine.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said Wednesday, during a meeting of NATO foreign ministers in Brussels, that U.S. President Donald Trump was the "only person" who could break the deadlock in efforts to end the war in Ukraine.

Following <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.verity.news/story/2025/putinus-envoy-talks-fail-to-yield-ukraine-peace-deal-2">five hours of Moscow talks</a> between Putin and U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov called the discussions useful and constructive, but said no compromise was reached on territorial issues Russia deems essential to resolving the conflict.

Following five hours of Moscow talks between Putin and U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov called the discussions useful and constructive, but said no compromise was reached on territorial issues Russia deems essential to resolving the conflict.

This comes after Putin stated on Tuesday that Russia did not want a war with European powers but was ready to fight if Europe wanted a direct conflict, accusing European powers of hindering Trump's peace efforts by putting forward proposals they knew Russia wouldn't accept.

This comes after Putin stated on Tuesday that Russia did not want a war with European powers but was ready to fight if Europe wanted a direct conflict, accusing European powers of hindering Trump's peace efforts by putting forward proposals they knew Russia wouldn't accept.

Rutte warned that the alliance faced "real and lasting dangers" with Russia's continuing attacks against Ukraine and its "reckless behavior," stressing that while NATO remained a defensive alliance, it was "ready and willing to do what it takes" to defend its people and territory.

Rutte warned that the alliance faced "real and lasting dangers" with Russia's continuing attacks against Ukraine and its "reckless behavior," stressing that while NATO remained a defensive alliance, it was "ready and willing to do what it takes" to defend its people and territory.

According to Putin aide Yuri Ushakov, Russia is now, and will in the future, only negotiate an end to the Ukraine conflict solely with the U.S., adding that Moscow and Washington agreed to closed-door talks with no public disclosures.

According to Putin aide Yuri Ushakov, Russia is now, and will in the future, only negotiate an end to the Ukraine conflict solely with the U.S., adding that Moscow and Washington agreed to closed-door talks with no public disclosures.

As European nations continue to accuse Russia of not offering concessions, the European Commission is proposing a new €90 billion ($105 billion) in funding for Ukraine over two years, including a loan based on frozen Russian assets or common E.U. borrowing on international capital markets, which it says will meet two-thirds of Kyiv's financing needs for 2026 and 2027.

As European nations continue to accuse Russia of not offering concessions, the European Commission is proposing a new €90 billion ($105 billion) in funding for Ukraine over two years, including a loan based on frozen Russian assets or common E.U. borrowing on international capital markets, which it says will meet two-thirds of Kyiv's financing needs for 2026 and 2027.

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Russia negotiates exclusively with Washington while Europeans refuse contact, proving Moscow's diplomatic strength and battlefield victories have forced America to engage seriously on Russian terms. Putin's successes compel the West toward realistic settlement discussions that acknowledge territorial realities, with continued military advances ensuring reason will ultimately prevail despite Ukrainian resistance.

Russia negotiates exclusively with Washington while Europeans refuse contact, proving Moscow's diplomatic strength and battlefield victories have forced America to engage seriously on Russian terms. Putin's successes compel the West toward realistic settlement discussions that acknowledge territorial realities, with continued military advances ensuring reason will ultimately prevail despite Ukrainian resistance.

Trump alone possesses the capability to break the negotiation deadlock, with NATO leadership correctly recognizing American primacy in brokering peace. Putin shows zero signs of compromise and believes he can outlast Western resolve, making continued European unity and financial support for Ukraine absolutely essential to counter Kremlin intransigence.

Trump alone possesses the capability to break the negotiation deadlock, with NATO leadership correctly recognizing American primacy in brokering peace. Putin shows zero signs of compromise and believes he can outlast Western resolve, making continued European unity and financial support for Ukraine absolutely essential to counter Kremlin intransigence.

The Russia-Ukraine War

Dursun Aydemir/Anadolu/Getty Images

Dursun Aydemir/Anadolu/Getty Images

NATO Chief: Only Trump Can Break Ukraine War Deadlock

Russia

Ukraine

Armed conflict

United States of America

Europe

While Europe and NATO have stood up for Ukraine from the beginning and will continue for as long as it takes, the U.S. is very much needed to put Moscow in its place. Only American leverage and resources can pressure Russia meaningfully, anchor long-term peace negotiations, and ensure Ukraine — and by extension Europe — doesn't have to fight this war alone.

While Europe and NATO have stood up for Ukraine from the beginning and will continue for as long as it takes, the U.S. is very much needed to put Moscow in its place. Only American leverage and resources can pressure Russia meaningfully, anchor long-term peace negotiations, and ensure Ukraine — and by extension Europe — doesn't have to fight this war alone.

While Europe and NATO fire off statements, the West keeps ignoring Russia's core security concerns — pushing expansion, encircling Moscow, and using Ukraine as a proxy battlefield. Only direct U.S.–Russia diplomacy can restore balance. Europe just fuels conflict.

While Europe and NATO fire off statements, the West keeps ignoring Russia's core security concerns — pushing expansion, encircling Moscow, and using Ukraine as a proxy battlefield. Only direct U.S.–Russia diplomacy can restore balance. Europe just fuels conflict.

While Europe keeps warning of phantom threats and blocking any deal that reflects battlefield reality, its actions suggest it doesn't actually want the war to end — and Trump may not either. By undermining negotiations, floating unrealistic demands, and clinging to failed strategies, Western actors seem more invested in prolonging the conflict than in securing peace.

While Europe keeps warning of phantom threats and blocking any deal that reflects battlefield reality, its actions suggest it doesn't actually want the war to end — and Trump may not either. By undermining negotiations, floating unrealistic demands, and clinging to failed strategies, Western actors seem more invested in prolonging the conflict than in securing peace.

NATO Chief: Only Trump Can Break Ukraine War Deadlock

NATO Chief: Only Trump Can Break Ukraine War Deadlock

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NATO Chief: Only Trump Can Break Ukraine War Deadlock

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