Cutting off Russian energy would be an economic disaster for Europe. Companies already pay 2-3 times more for electricity than U.S. rivals and 4.5 times more for gas, forcing widespread factory closures and job losses. The EU paid an extra $204 billion for natural gas over 20 months while household power bills hit record highs, proving this self-inflicted crisis will devastate European industry.
Europe's dependence on Russian gas was the greatest geopolitical blunder of the 21st century. Moscow weaponized energy exports for decades, cutting off supplies to Latvia, Lithuania and Ukraine to exert political control while Europe ignored the warnings. Ending this dangerous relationship is essential for security and independence, even if transition costs are high in the short term.
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There is a 2.2% chance that the EU will import at least 19 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia in the second half of 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
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