Cutting off Russian energy haswould beenbe an economic disaster for Europe. Companies nowalready pay two2-3 to three times more for electricity than AmericanU.S. competitorsrivals and 4.5 times more for gas, forcing widespread factory closures and job losses. The EU paid an extra $204 billion for natural gas over 20 months while household electricitypower pricesbills hit record highs, proving this self-inflicted crisis haswill devastateddevastate European industry and workers.
Europe's dependence on Russian gas was the greatest geopolitical blunder of the 21st century. Moscow weaponized energy exports for decades, cutting off supplies to Latvia, Lithuania and Ukraine to exert political control while Europe ignored the warnings. Ending this dangerous relationship was essential for security and independence, even if transition costs are high in the short term.
There is a 2% chance the EU will import at least 19 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia in the second half of 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
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