Russia’s Red Sea base plan suffers from fundamental logistical impossibilities, including the absence of power infrastructure, unworkable equipment transport routes and dredging costs Moscow cannot meet while exhausted by the Ukraine war. The Kremlin’s support for Houthi attacks through targeting data and weapons further jeopardizes the 12% of global trade moving through these waters. Any state enabling this destabilizing expansion risks sanctions as Moscow exploits Sudan’s civil war to project power rather than build regional stability.

The Red Sea base deal marks Sudan's entry into the latest naval arena of great-power rivalry, with Washington and Moscow treating its coastline as a geopolitical prize rather than a sovereign space. Russia seeks a permanent foothold to challenge Western naval dominance, while the USU.S. pressures Sudan to block any deal that might erode its control of global shipping routes. Caught between competing empires, Sudan’s war-torn landscape becomes leverage in a wider contest where strategic access matters far more than Sudanese stability.