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Snapshot 5:Tue, Dec 2, 2025 11:29:37 AM GMT last edited by Kani

Russia, Sudan Confirm Red Sea Naval Base Deal

Russia, Sudan Confirm Red Sea Naval Base Deal

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The Spin

Sudan'sSecuring strategicRussian partnershipaccess withto Russiathe representsRed aSea sovereignthrough recalibrationa towardmutually genuineagreed mutualnaval benefit,facility offeringmarks advanceda militarysovereign technology,choice satelliteby systems,Sudan energyto solutionspartner andwith agriculturala modernizationstate thatoffering Westernreal, powerslong-term havebenefits. deniedRussia forprovides decades.advanced Russia'sdefense commitmenttechnology, tospace Sudanesesystems, sovereigntyenergy support demonstratedand bylong-denied itsagricultural UNmodernization, Securitywhile Councildefending vetoSudanese blockingsovereignty foreignat interferencethe UN stands in stark contrast to punitiveU.S. American sanctions designedaimed solelyat topunishing isolate nations pursuing independent policiesgovernments. The Red Sea naval facility serves both nations' legitimate security interests while Russia's stateState-integratedled militaryRussian cooperation replaces discreditedfailed Western-backed mercenary operationsstructures with credible, professional defensemilitary partnerships.

Russia's Red Sea base schemeplan facessuffers insurmountablefrom fundamental logistical nightmaresimpossibilities, including impossiblethe equipmentabsence transport,of nonexistent power infrastructure, andunworkable prohibitivelyequipment expensivetransport coastalroutes and dredging thatcosts Moscow cannot affordmeet while bleedingexhausted resourcesby inthe Ukraine war. The Kremlin's support for Houthi attacks onthrough international shipping — including satellite targeting data and weapons transfersfurther jeopardizes directly threatens the 12% of global trade passingmoving through these waters. Any nationstate enabling this destabilizing Russian military expansion risks serious consequences including sanctions, as Moscow cynically exploits Sudan's civil war to project power rather than promotebuild regional stability.

The Red Sea base deal marks Sudan's entry into the latest naval arena of great-power rivalry, with Washington and Moscow treating its coastline as a geopolitical prize rather than a sovereign space. Russia seeks a permanent foothold to challenge Western naval dominance, while the US pressures Sudan to block any deal that might erode its control of global shipping routes. Caught between competing empires, Sudan’s war-torn landscape becomes leverage in a wider contest where strategic access matters far more than Sudanese stability.

Metaculus Prediction

There is a 64 percent chance that the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) will come out as the victor in the Sudanese civil war, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


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All rights reserved.

Version 6.18.0