Snapshot 6:Wed, Nov 26, 2025 10:13:04 AM GMT last edited by ArthursSeat22

Brazil: Bolsonaro Starts 27-Year Jail Term for Coup Plot

Published 2 days ago

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Above: A supporter of Jair Bolsonaro in front of the Federal Police headquarters, in Brasília, on Nov. 23, 2025. Image credit: Evaristo SA/AFP/Getty Images

The Spin

Brazil's conviction of Bolsonaro finally holds a leader accountable, proving the Supreme Court safeguards democracy without overstepping. This contrasts with the U.S. failure to prosecute Trump, sending a clear message that coup attempts face consequences. Far-rightCries cries of judicial dictatorship mask theira push for impunity, but this ruling strengthens Brazil's fragile institutions against authoritarianism.

ECPS

Bolsonaro's trial reeks of political persecution, with baseless charges ignoring his denial and the full right to defense he exercised. The Supreme Court's overreach in convicting him to 27 years sets a dangerous precedent, fueling appeals and amnesty efforts that could rightfully free him. His enduring influence ensures supporters rally against this witch hunt, keeping his legacy alive in Brazil's polarized politics.

Financial Times

ThereBrazil's isconviction of Bolsonaro finally holds a 50%leader chanceaccountable, Presidentproving Luizthe InacioSupreme LulaCourt dasafeguards Silvademocracy. willThis becontrasts reelectedwith asthe Brazil'sU.S. presidentfailure into Octoberprosecute Trump, sending a clear message that coup attempts face consequences. Cries of 2026judicial dictatorship mask a push for impunity, accordingbut tothis theruling Metaculusstrengthens predictionBrazil's communityfragile institutions against authoritarianism.

Brasil de Fato ECPS

Economist Financial Times

Metaculus Prediction

There is a 50% chance that President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will be reelected as Brazil's president in October of 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.