Brazil's conviction of Bolsonaro finally holds a leader accountable, proving the Supreme Court safeguards democracy. This contrasts with the U.S. failure to prosecute Trump, sending a clear message that coup attempts face consequences. Cries of judicial dictatorship mask a push for impunity, but this ruling strengthens Brazil's fragile institutions against authoritarianism.
Bolsonaro's trial reeks of political persecution, with baseless charges ignoring his denial and the full right to defense he exercised. The Supreme Court's overreach in convicting him to 27 years sets a dangerous precedent, fueling appeals and amnesty efforts that could rightfully free him. His enduring influence ensures supporters rally against this witch hunt, keeping his legacy alive in Brazil's polarized politics.
There is a 50% chance that President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will be reelected as Brazil's president in October of 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
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