European Central Bank

Supervisory priorities 2026-28

The Epoch Times

European Banks Face Unprecedentedly High Shock Risk: ECB

Euro Weekly News

ECB Warns Banks of Unprecedented Shocks

RTE.ie

Europe's banks face 'unprecedentedly high' risk of shocks

Reuters

Europe's banks face 'unprecedentedly high' risk of shocks, ECB warns

MarioNawfal

Stress tests in uncertain times: assessing banks resilience to external shocks

Metaculus

Magnificent Seven bubble pops?

Jerome Powell

Oxford Economics

Torsten Sløk

Kristina Hooper

U. S. Chamber of Commerce

S&P Global

Goldman Sachs

Howard Lutnick

Polymarket

Peter Berezin

Olu Sonola

Samy Chaar

American Bankers Association

Joseph Brusuelas

Wells Fargo

James Doti

Michael Gapen

William J. Luther 

Matt Schoeppner

John Hussman

Bruce Kasman

Bernard Markstein

Yelena Maleyev

Mike Englund

Steven Hanke

Mark Zandi

Paul Gruenwald

Neil Shearing

Brian Moynihan

J.P. Morgan

Larry Summers

"We believe there will be no recession in 2025."

The likelihood of a recession is "getting close to 50-50."

"Barring an unforeseeable event, the economy should grow even better in 2025 than it did in 2023 and 2024."

"The threat of a recession is real."

"Contrary to popular perception, the US is at greater risk of a recession than it was in early 2022."

Will the US Go into Recession in 2025?

The European Central Bank (ECB) issued a warning on Tuesday that “global uncertainties have surged to exceptional levels” and that banks must prepare for “sudden and severe disruptions” to the global financial system and economy.

The European Central Bank (ECB) issued a warning on Tuesday that “global uncertainties have surged to exceptional levels” and that banks must prepare for “sudden and severe disruptions” to the global financial system and economy.

In its supervisory priorities for 2026-28, the ECB identified geopolitical tensions, shifting trade policies, climate crises, demographic change and technological disruptions as key factors “making the likelihood of extreme, low probability events … unprecedently high.”

In its supervisory priorities for 2026-28, the ECB identified geopolitical tensions, shifting trade policies, climate crises, demographic change and technological disruptions as key factors “making the likelihood of extreme, low probability events … unprecedently high.”

For the moment, banks, the ECB claimed, maintain “solid fundamentals,” boasting “strong capital and liquidity positions and low levels of non-performing loans,” along with stable asset quality, underpinned by economic growth and stable inflation.

For the moment, banks, the ECB claimed, maintain “solid fundamentals,” boasting “strong capital and liquidity positions and low levels of non-performing loans,” along with stable asset quality, underpinned by economic growth and stable inflation.

The ECB claimed, however, that “significant downside risks persist,” specifically naming tensions in the EU-U.S. trading relationship, which the central bank said could affect European industries with high volume exports to the U.S. and cause asset quality to decline.

The ECB claimed, however, that “significant downside risks persist,” specifically naming tensions in the EU-U.S. trading relationship, which the central bank said could affect European industries with high volume exports to the U.S. and cause asset quality to decline.

In response, the ECB emphasized that banks must strengthen their operational resilience through adequate capitalization, prudent risk-taking and robust risk management, while bolstering ICT capabilities by implementing the requirements of the Digital Operational Resilience Act.

In response, the ECB emphasized that banks must strengthen their operational resilience through adequate capitalization, prudent risk-taking and robust risk management, while bolstering ICT capabilities by implementing the requirements of the Digital Operational Resilience Act.

To measure the banks’ resilience to external shocks and how they might impact the banks’ liquidity and funding, the ECB announced plans for a thematic stress test in 2026, where banks will identify the scenario that would cause a “severe capital depletion.”

To measure the banks’ resilience to external shocks and how they might impact the banks’ liquidity and funding, the ECB announced plans for a thematic stress test in 2026, where banks will identify the scenario that would cause a “severe capital depletion.”

European Central Bank #

The Epoch Times #

Euro Weekly News #

RTE.ie #

Reuters #

Metaculus #

The European Central Bank announced its supervisory priorities for 2026-28, warning that global uncertainties have reached exceptional levels and banks must prepare for unprecedented shocks with severe disruptions.</span

The European Central Bank announced its supervisory priorities for 2026-28, warning that global uncertainties have reached exceptional levels and banks must prepare for unprecedented shocks with severe disruptions.

The ECB identified geopolitical tensions, shifting trade policies, climate crises, demographic change and technological disruptions as factors making extreme low-probability events unprecedentedly likely.</span

The ECB identified geopolitical tensions, shifting trade policies, climate crises, demographic change and technological disruptions as factors making extreme low-probability events unprecedentedly likely.

Banks currently maintain strong fundamentals with solid capital positions, stable asset quality and resilient profitability, with overall Common Equity Tier 1 capital requirements remaining steady at 11.2% for 2026.</span

Banks currently maintain strong fundamentals with solid capital positions, stable asset quality and resilient profitability, with overall Common Equity Tier 1 capital requirements remaining steady at 11.2% for 2026.

The ECB plans to conduct a reverse stress test in 2026 where supervisors will set capital depletion levels and require banks to design scenarios that could realistically push them to those breaking points.</span

The ECB plans to conduct a reverse stress test in 2026 where supervisors will set capital depletion levels and require banks to design scenarios that could realistically push them to those breaking points.

US-EU trade tensions pose significant downside risks that could affect automotive, chemical and pharmaceutical sectors with high export volumes to the United States, potentially causing asset quality to decline.</span

US-EU trade tensions pose significant downside risks that could affect automotive, chemical and pharmaceutical sectors with high export volumes to the United States, potentially causing asset quality to decline.

The ECB emphasized that banks must strengthen operational resilience and ICT capabilities while implementing new Digital Operational Resilience Act requirements, particularly for cybersecurity and third-party risk management.</span

The ECB emphasized that banks must strengthen operational resilience and ICT capabilities while implementing new Digital Operational Resilience Act requirements, particularly for cybersecurity and third-party risk management.

The ECB is sounding alarm bells because the financial system is heading toward unprecedented chaos. Banks face a perfect storm of trade wars, cyberattacks, climate disasters and geopolitical tensions that could trigger severe market crashes. Stock prices are dangerously inflated and don't reflect the massive risks lurking beneath the surface.

The ECB is sounding alarm bells because the financial system is heading toward unprecedented chaos. Banks face a perfect storm of trade wars, cyberattacks, climate disasters and geopolitical tensions that could trigger severe market crashes. Stock prices are dangerously inflated and don't reflect the massive risks lurking beneath the surface.</span

Mario Nawfal

European banks are fundamentally strong and well-positioned to handle current uncertainties. The banking sector maintains robust capital levels, healthy liquidity positions and low non-performing loans while demonstrating remarkable resilience during recent market volatility. Banks have successfully weathered trade tensions and proven their ability to support economic growth.

European banks are fundamentally strong and well-positioned to handle current uncertainties. The banking sector maintains robust capital levels, healthy liquidity positions and low non-performing loans while demonstrating remarkable resilience during recent market volatility. Banks have successfully weathered trade tensions and proven their ability to support economic growth.</span

ECB Warns Banks: Prepare for Unprecedented Global Shocks

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European banks are fundamentally strong and well-positioned to handle current uncertainties, with robust capital levels, healthy liquidity positions and few non-performing loans. That does not mean, however, that Europe should be complacent, which is why the ECB is taking measures to strengthen the sector’s resilience in an increasingly unpredictable world.

European banks are fundamentally strong and well-positioned to handle current uncertainties, with robust capital levels, healthy liquidity positions and few non-performing loans. That does not mean, however, that Europe should be complacent, which is why the ECB is taking measures to strengthen the sector’s resilience in an increasingly unpredictable world.

The ECB is sounding the alarm bells because the financial system is heading toward unprecedented chaos. Banks face a perfect storm of trade wars, cyberattacks, climate disasters and geopolitical tensions that could trigger severe market crashes. To put it simply, the stock market’s recent highs do not reflect the massive risks lurking beneath the surface.

The ECB is sounding the alarm bells because the financial system is heading toward unprecedented chaos. Banks face a perfect storm of trade wars, cyberattacks, climate disasters and geopolitical tensions that could trigger severe market crashes. To put it simply, the stock market’s recent highs do not reflect the massive risks lurking beneath the surface.

There is a 1% chance that the bubble in the Magnificent Seven will pop before 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

There is a 1% chance that the bubble in the Magnificent Seven will pop before 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

ECB Warns Banks: Prepare for Unprecedented Global Shocks

ECB Warns Banks: Prepare for Unprecedented Global Shocks

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Metaculus Prediction

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Sløk

Summers

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ECB Warns Banks: Prepare for Unprecedented Global Shocks

ECB Warns Banks: Prepare for Unprecedented Global Shocks

The Spin

Metaculus Prediction

The Controversies

Sløk

Summers

Commerce

Sonola

Berezin

Articles on this story

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