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Snapshot 6:Thu, Nov 6, 2025 7:35:36 PM GMT last edited by KateHennig

Report: US Plans Military Base in Damascus to Monitor Possible Syria-Israel Pact

Report: US Plans Military Base in Damascus to Monitor Possible Syria-Israel Pact

Above: U.S. President Donald Trump (C) with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman (L) and Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa (R) in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on May 14, 2025. Image credit: @PressSec/X

The Spin

If the details of this report are accurate, this is a stunning geopolitical coup for the United States. By taking control of the airbase, America has seized a golden opportunity to cement its foothold in Syria and further its influence in a region that not too long ago was aligned with its adversaries. Rival powers like Russia will surely be left scrambling at this development.

With its primary objectives in the region already complete, it would be a mistake for the U.S. to double down on its presence in Syria. With Assad gone and ISIS practically defeated, a total U.S. withdrawal from Syria is the only policy that makes sense, unless the administration wants to commit vital resources to a threat of diminishing strategic value.

ThereRather isthan forging genuine peace, this move would serve as a 10%strategic chancehedge thatfor SyriaWashington will bepositioning partitioneda into“base” new,in internationallyDamascus recognizedunder sovereignthe statesguise beforeof 2040a pact, accordingwhile tolocking in long-term access and surveillance power in the Metaculusheart predictionof communitySyria, effectively leasing influence more than securing stability.

Metaculus Prediction

There is a 10% chance that Syria will be partitioned into new, internationally recognized sovereign states before 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community.



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All rights reserved.

Version 6.18.0