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Snapshot 5:Thu, Nov 6, 2025 7:35:36 PM GMT last edited by KateHennig

Report: US Plans Military Base in Damascus to Monitor Possible Syria-Israel Pact

Report: US Plans Military Base in Damascus to Monitor Possible Syria-Israel Pact

Above: U.S. President Donald Trump (C) with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman (L) and Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa (R) in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on May 14, 2025. Image copyright: @PressSec/X

The Spin

If the details of this report are accurate, this is a stunning geopolitical coup for the United States. By taking control of the airbase, America has seized a golden opportunity to cement its foothold in Syria and further its influence in a region that not too long ago was aligned with its adversaries. Rival powers like Russia will surely be left scrambling at this development.

WithRather itsthan primaryforging objectivesgenuine inpeace, thethis regionmove alreadywould complete,serve itas woulda bestrategic ahedge mistake for theWashington U.S. topositioning doublea down“base” on its presence in Syria.Damascus Withunder Assadthe goneguise andof ISISa practically defeatedpact, awhile totallocking U.S.in withdrawallong-term fromaccess Syriaand issurveillance thepower onlyin policythe thatheart makesof senseSyria, unlesseffectively theleasing administrationinfluence wantsmore tothan commitsecuring vital resources to a threat of diminishing strategic valuestability.

ThereIf the details of this report are accurate, this is a 10%stunning chancegeopolitical thatcoup Syriafor willthe beUnited partitionedStates. intoBy newtaking control of the airbase, internationallyAmerica recognizedhas sovereignseized statesa beforegolden 2040,opportunity according to thecement Metaculusits predictionfoothold communityin Syria and further its influence in a region that not too long ago was aligned with its adversaries. Rival powers like Russia will surely be left scrambling at this development.

With its primary objectives in the region already complete, it would be a mistake for the U.S. to double down on its presence in Syria. With Assad gone and ISIS practically defeated, a total U.S. withdrawal from Syria is the only policy that makes sense, unless the administration wants to commit vital resources to a threat of diminishing strategic value.

Rather than forging genuine peace, this move would serve as a strategic hedge for Washington — positioning a “base” in Damascus under the guise of a pact, while locking in long-term access and surveillance power in the heart of Syria, effectively leasing influence more than securing stability.

Metaculus Prediction

There is a 10% chance that Syria will be partitioned into new, internationally recognized sovereign states before 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community.



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© 2025 Improve the News Foundation. All rights reserved.Version 6.17.0

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All rights reserved.

Version 6.17.0