Elon Musk

Rishi Sunak

Kamala Harris

Bill Gates

Andrew Ng

Yoshua Bengio

Fei-Fei Li

Demis Hassabis

Melanie Mitchell

Sam Altman

Dario Amodei

Geoffrey Hinton

Yann LeCun

Gary Marcus

Max Tegmark

Connor Leahy

Eliezer Yudkowsky

Jaan Tallinn

Marc Andreessen

Eric Schmidt

Norbert Wiener

Arthur Clarke

Irving John Good

Claude Shannon

Hans Moravec

John Smart

There's a "wall of fear-mongering and doomerism" in the AI world right now.

"Worrying about AI today is like worrying about overpopulation on Mars."

Concerns that AI could pose a threat to humanity is "preposterously ridiculous."

Claiming AI poses an existential threat is "such an extreme" and risks "wip[ing] out some of its potential benefits."

"I'm more concerned about... the risks that are here and now [than the existential threat of AI]."

Current AI is "not anywhere close" to posing an existential threat but it could in the future.

AI is the "biggest existential threat" to humanity.

AGI's worst-case scenario would be "lights-out for all of us."

Powerful AI systems "taking control" pose an "existential threat."

AI has a "10 to 25 per cent" chance of destroying humanity.

"The most likely result of building a superhumanly smart AI... is that literally everyone on Earth will die."

Does AI Pose an Existential Threat to Humanity?

Joe Biden

Stuart Russell

Tristan Harris

Cédric O

"AI may cause the most dramatic and sustained economic boom of all time."

AI will make the world "way wealthier" and lead to a "productivity boom."

AI is an "amplifier of human intelligence" and will help the economy thrive.

AI will enable "universal high income" in place of "universal basic income."

"AI may become the heart of future economic growth in the coming decades."

AI harms could include "disrupting economies."

AI could "disrupt job markets."

"AI and technological unemployment" are the "biggest problem we face" from an "economic point of view."

"The moment superintelligent AI emerges, the human economy will end."

Will AI Bring Economic Risks?

Vladimir Putin

Hod Lipson

Yuval Noah Harari

Sundar Pichai

"[T]here will be far greater jobs" thanks to AI and "the jobs of today will get better."

AI will probably "take over a lot of jobs," but could also "create new kinds of jobs"

"[W]e might witness the creation of a massive new unworking class."

AI "is not going to put a lot of people out of work permanently" but work will change.

AI might take away more than just "drudge work."

"AI software will be in direct competition with a lot of people for jobs."

"Automation and AI will take away pretty much all of our jobs."

Eventually, "AI will be able to do everything" and jobs will exist only for "personal satisfaction."

Will AI Replace All Jobs?

Shane Legg

Metaculus

Society is more likely to get "cat-level" or "dog-level" AI years before human-level AI.

"[W]e will eventually reach AGI... and quite possibly before the end of this century."

"Superhuman AIs" will be achieved "between a few years and a couple of decades."

"Digital intelligence" could overtake us within "5 to 20 years."

We may achieve "something like AGI or AGI-like in the next decade."

"[W]e could get to real AGI in the next decade."

"Human-level" AI could occur in "two or three years."

"I'd be surprised if we don't have AGI by [2029]."

Will AI Surpass Human Intelligence, and When?

Extropic, a Boston-area startup founded by former Google quantum computing researchers, has developed thermodynamic sampling units that use probabilistic bits rather than traditional processing methods, claiming energy efficiency gains of up to 10,000 times those of current graphics processing units (GPUs).

WinBuzzer

Wired

Extropic, a Boston-area startup founded by former Google quantum computing researchers, has developed thermodynamic sampling units that use probabilistic bits rather than traditional processing methods, claiming energy efficiency gains of up to 10,000 times those of current graphics processing units (GPUs).

The XTR-0 development platform consists of a central processing unit, an FPGA chip and two sockets for thermodynamic sampling units. Early testing partners include weather modeling companies and government representatives who are evaluating the probabilistic computing approach.

Extropic

SciTech Era

The XTR-0 development platform consists of a central processing unit, an FPGA chip and two sockets for thermodynamic sampling units. Early testing partners include weather modeling companies and government representatives who are evaluating the probabilistic computing approach.

Extropic's thermodynamic sampling units harness electron fluctuations to model probabilities directly in silicon, using probabilistic circuits that sample from distributions rather than performing the traditional matrix-multiplication operations required by current AI systems.

The Rundown AI

Extropic's thermodynamic sampling units harness electron fluctuations to model probabilities directly in silicon, using probabilistic circuits that sample from distributions rather than performing the traditional matrix-multiplication operations required by current AI systems.

This comes as U.S. data centers consumed 183 terawatt-hours of electricity in 2024 — over 4% of the country's total electricity consumption — and this figure could reach 426 TWh by 2030, according to International Energy Agency estimates.

Digital Watch Observatory

This comes as U.S. data centers consumed 183 terawatt-hours of electricity in 2024 — over 4% of the country's total electricity consumption — and this figure could reach 426 TWh by 2030, according to International Energy Agency estimates.

Natural gas supplies over 40% of electricity for U.S. data centers as of 2024, while renewables provide about 24%, nuclear power around 20% and coal approximately 15%. Natural gas is projected to remain the largest energy source through 2030.

Pew Research Center

Natural gas supplies over 40% of electricity for U.S. data centers as of 2024, while renewables provide about 24%, nuclear power around 20% and coal approximately 15%. Natural gas is projected to remain the largest energy source through 2030.

Data center expansion could lead to an 8% increase in average U.S. electricity bills by 2030. High-demand markets are potentially seeing increases exceeding 25%, as utilities pass infrastructure upgrade costs to consumers through rate adjustments.

Axios

Data center expansion could lead to an 8% increase in average U.S. electricity bills by 2030. High-demand markets are potentially seeing increases exceeding 25%, as utilities pass infrastructure upgrade costs to consumers through rate adjustments.

Guillaume Verdon

Scientific American

Extropic, a Boston-area startup founded by former Google quantum computing researchers, has developed thermodynamic sampling units that use probabilistic bits rather than traditional processing methods, claiming energy efficiency gains of up to 10,000 times those of current GPUs.

WinBuzzer #

Wired #3082

Extropic, a Boston-area startup founded by former Google quantum computing researchers, has developed thermodynamic sampling units that use probabilistic bits rather than traditional processing methods, claiming energy efficiency gains of up to 10,000 times those of current GPUs.

The XTR-0 development platform consists of a CPU, an FPGA and two sockets for thermodynamic sampling units. Early testing partners include weather modeling companies and government representatives who are evaluating the probabilistic computing approach.

Extropic #

The XTR-0 development platform consists of a CPU, an FPGA and two sockets for thermodynamic sampling units. Early testing partners include weather modeling companies and government representatives who are evaluating the probabilistic computing approach.

The Rundown AI #

Pew Research Center #

Digital Watch Observatory #

IEA #

Scientific American #3812

Axios #

Thermodynamic computing is a revolutionary breakthrough that harnesses thermal noise as a computational resource instead of fighting it. This paradigm shift eliminates the massive energy waste of digital systems that artificially generate pseudo-randomness, delivering true efficiency gains for AI and optimization tasks.

Thermodynamic computing is a revolutionary breakthrough that harnesses thermal noise as a computational resource instead of fighting it. This paradigm shift eliminates the massive energy waste of digital systems that artificially generate pseudo-randomness, delivering true efficiency gains for AI and optimization tasks.

Viggo Hansen

LinkedIn

LinkedIn #

Explaining Extropic AIs Thermodynamic Computing Through TRIZ: Embracing Randomness as the Solution

E1 Ventures

E1 Ventures #

Portfolio: Extropics Thermodynamic Computing, Defined and Demystified

Extropic's XTR-0 is recycled stochastic computing dressed in thermodynamic buzzwords — a tiny FPGA toy for niche RNG tasks. Lacking scalable benchmarks, it ignores analog pitfalls like chip variability and verification nightmares. Amid GPU dominance, this unproven prototype risks vaporware status, fooling investors with sci-fi flair.

Extropic's XTR-0 is recycled stochastic computing dressed in thermodynamic buzzwords — a tiny FPGA toy for niche RNG tasks. Lacking scalable benchmarks, it ignores analog pitfalls like chip variability and verification nightmares. Amid GPU dominance, this unproven prototype risks vaporware status, fooling investors with sci-fi flair.

Y Combinator

Y Combinator #

Extropic is building thermodynamic computing hardware

AI has hit an energy wall. The AI boom mirrors the unsustainable telecom bubble of the late 1990s, with massive investment in technology that can't deliver profits fast enough. Companies are already installing polluting generators because the grid lacks capacity for their data centers, threatening economic collapse when reality hits.

AI has hit an energy wall. The AI boom mirrors the unsustainable telecom bubble of the late 1990s, with massive investment in technology that can't deliver profits fast enough. Companies are already installing polluting generators because the grid lacks capacity for their data centers, threatening economic collapse when reality hits.

Paul Krugman

Substack

Substack #

What Happens If AI Hits An Energy Wall?

There's a 70% chance that any Chinese semiconductor foundry will have 20% or more global semiconductor market share before 2033, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

There's a 70% chance that any Chinese semiconductor foundry will have 20% or more global semiconductor market share before 2033, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Extropic Unveils Thermodynamic 10,000x Energy Saving AI Chips

Extropic Unveils Thermodynamic 10,000x Energy Saving AI Chips

The Spin

Metaculus Prediction

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Li

Bengio

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Altman

Hinton

Amodei

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Musk

Bengio

Mitchell

Harris

Russell

Tallinn

Altman

Mitchell

Harari

LeCun

Hinton

Ng

Lipson

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LeCun

Marcus

Bengio

Hinton

Hassabis

Altman

Amodei

Musk

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