Joe Biden

Tsai Ing-wen

John Mearsheimer

William Burns

Marco Rubio

Michael McCaul

Lai Ching-te

Philip S. Davidson

Ministry of National Defense of Taiwan

Bonnie S. Glaser

Mark Milley

Charles Glaser

Denny Roy

Mike Studeman

Oriana Skylar Mastro

Henry Olsen

Mike Minihan

Lyle Goldstein

Bates Gill

Minghao Zhao

Yun Sun

Metaculus

"I don't think that Xi Jinping is going to attack Taiwan any time soon."

"Beijing's main goal is to deter Taiwan independence, rather than realize military reunification."

"There's no indications or warnings of anything imminent [China attacking Taiwan] at this time."

A Chinese takeover of Taiwan "is not inevitable nor, perhaps, even likely in the next few years."

"My thought is that perhaps this is not a time for [China] to consider a major invasion of Taiwan."

"[T]here might indeed be some greater willingness by Beijing to coerce (or even invade) Taiwan during a Trump administration."

China is "more likely to resort to the use of force" if it "perceives a higher likelihood of U.S. support of Taiwan independence."

"An invasion of Taiwan could happen within this decade."

"I think the threat [of China seizing Taiwan] is manifest during this decade, in fact in the next six years."

"Xi's team, reason, and opportunity are all aligned for [a] 2025 [invasion of Taiwan]."

Will China Invade Taiwan?

Lloyd Austin

Jacob Thornburg

Michael Brenner

Finian Cunningham

Scott Ritter

Ray Dalio

Kevin Rudd

Zhao Tong

Stanislaw Koziej

Robert S. Ross

Charles C. Krulak

Michael C. Horowitz

Joseph S. Nye

Qin Gang

Frank Kendall III

Thomas L. Friedman

Marco J. Lyons

Global Times

"I argue that war is unlikely to occur due to the deep economic ties underlying the great power politics between the two countries."

"War with either [Russia or China] is neither inevitable nor imminent."

"As things currently stand, the US is not prepared to fight and win a war with China over Taiwan."

"A war between the US and China today is no more inevitable than was war between the rising US and the declining United Kingdom a century ago."

"[T]he tension between the United States and China will grow, and competition will intensify; it is inevitable. War, however, is not."

"War is a risk, but it is not inevitable."

"The risk of a military conflict is very serious."

"The smallest misstep by either side [Taipei and Beijing] could ignite a U.S.-China war."

"China is preparing for a war and specifically for a war with the United States."

"The most proximate potential timeframe for war is in the next two years."

"My gut tells me we [the US] will fight [with China] in 2025."

Will There Be a US-China War?

Centre for Economics and Business Research

Capital Economics

S&P Global

Goldman Sachs

George Magnus

Eswar Prasad

Nathan Sheets

Desmond Lachman

Statista

Rob Subbaraman

JCER

Chris Giles

"China's nominal gross domestic product is unlikely to surpass that of the U.S. in the next few decades."

"This idea of China becoming the world's biggest economy may not happen, actually."

"China probably won't ever overtake the US economy on a sustained basis."

"The likelihood of the prediction that China's GDP will one day overtake that of the U.S. is declining."

"If China grows by a more moderate 4% over the long term, its GDP will exceed that of the US eight years later, in 2046."

"China is forecast to overtake the U.S. as the world’s largest economy by around 2035."

"China will overtake the US as the world's top economy in about 2035 with a high probability."

"[T]he size of China's economy in USD terms will overtake the US in 2028."

"China will overtake the United States to become the world's biggest economy in 2028."

Will China's GDP Overtake the US, And If So When?

Andrew Ng

Eric Schmidt

Chuck Schumer

Brad Smith

Nestor Maslej

Ruth Porat

Ylli Bajraktari

Bruegel

National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence

Brandon J. Weichert

Clement Delangue

Zhou Hongyi

Joseph Tsai

Huey-Meei Chang

Craig S. Smith

Jeffrey Ding

Ray Perrault

Susana Martinez

Niall Ferguson

Larry Elliot

Marcel Munch

Pavel Durov

John Rush

"I think, today, [China is] probably two years behind the top [AI] models [from the US]."

"Where China sits [in AI], I think, is very far behind the US."

"The United States is in a strong position to win the essential [AI] race with China."

"China will dominate AI."

"The combination with China's self-made chips + AI infrastructure stack will put China ahead of the US."

China would "undoubtedly come out on top [in the US-China AI race]."

"[I]t seems like the United States is really far ahead [when it comes to generative AI]."

"China will lead the world in AI development."

In 2025, "China will start to lead the AI race (as a consequence of leading the open-source AI race)."

Will China Surpass the US in AI?

US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping met on October 30, 2025, in Busan, South Korea, on the sidelines of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation summit, marking their first face to face encounter in six years and since Trump returned to the White House.</span

Daily Mail

The Indian Express

Guardian

The Hindu

US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping met on October 30, 2025, in Busan, South Korea, on the sidelines of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation summit, marking their first face to face encounter in six years and since Trump returned to the White House.

Trump announced that US tariffs on Chinese goods would be reduced from 57 percent to 47 percent and that fentanyl related tariffs would be cut to 10 percent, with China agreeing to work hard to stop the flow of fentanyl precursor chemicals into the United States.</span

Al Jazeera

NDTV

The Economic Times

Trump announced that US tariffs on Chinese goods would be reduced from 57 percent to 47 percent and that fentanyl related tariffs would be cut to 10 percent, with China agreeing to work hard to stop the flow of fentanyl precursor chemicals into the United States.

The two leaders reached an understanding on rare earth minerals, with Trump stating the issue had been settled and that China would pause its export controls for at least one year, addressing a key point of contention between the world's two largest economies.</span

Bloomberg

The two leaders reached an understanding on rare earth minerals, with Trump stating the issue had been settled and that China would pause its export controls for at least one year, addressing a key point of contention between the world's two largest economies.

China agreed to immediately resume large scale purchases of American soybeans after halting imports for several months, a move welcomed by Trump as a significant win for US farmers amid the ongoing trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing.</span

India Today

China agreed to immediately resume large scale purchases of American soybeans after halting imports for several months, a move welcomed by Trump as a significant win for US farmers amid the ongoing trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing.

Xi Jinping acknowledged it was normal for the two leading economies to have frictions given their different national conditions, while Trump praised Xi as a tough negotiator and said the meeting was a great success that would lead to a fantastic relationship.</span

BBC News

Xi Jinping acknowledged it was normal for the two leading economies to have frictions given their different national conditions, while Trump praised Xi as a tough negotiator and said the meeting was a great success that would lead to a fantastic relationship.

Trump said he would visit China in April 2026 and that Xi would travel to the United States afterward, with the president noting that Taiwan did not come up during their discussions despite ongoing concerns about the self governed island's status.</span

South China Morning Post

Trump said he would visit China in April 2026 and that Xi would travel to the United States afterward, with the president noting that Taiwan did not come up during their discussions despite ongoing concerns about the self governed island's status.

Trump, Xi Meet in Busan: Tariffs Cut, Trade Deal Reached

The Controversies

Mearsheimer

Zhao

Milley

Glaser

Ing-wen

Goldstein

Sun

Rubio

Davidson

Minihan

Thornburg

Milley

Ritter

Krulak

Rudd

Nye

Tong

Friedman

III

Horowitz

Minihan

JCER

Magnus

Economics

Prasad

Global

Sachs

Times

Subbaraman

Research

Tsai

Ding

Smith

Rush

Munch

Hongyi

Maslej

Martinez

Delangue

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