Volodymyr Zelenskyy

Alexander Lukashenko

William Burns

Dmitry Peskov

Fiona Hill

Sergei Markov

Oleksiy Reznikov

James Stavridis

Dmitry Medvedev

Barry Posen

James Acton

Kevin Ryan

Nicolo Fasola

Matthew Bunn

Steven Pifer

Harry Kazianis

Mikhail Kasyanov

Robert Gates

Mitt Romney

Alexey Zaitsev

Pat Buchanan

Nina Khrushcheva

William Alberque

Fabian Hoffmann

Stephen I. Schwartz

Olga Oliker

Ira Helfand

Metaculus

"I think it's extremely unlikely that he [Putin] would move in that [using tactical nuclear weapons] direction in the current conflict."

"I don't see Putin deciding to use a nuclear weapon."

"There are reasons to believe Moscow would not press the nuclear button."

"Though it is unlikely that Russia will use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, the risks are real."

Putin has sent many signals that "he will use battlefield nuclear weapons from his arsenal of 6,000 such weapons to win the war."

"Well, yes, he [Putin] would [launch a nuclear attack]."

Would Putin Detonate Nuclear Weapons in Ukraine?

Lloyd Austin

Mark Milley

Mike Minihan

Jacob Thornburg

Michael Brenner

Finian Cunningham

Scott Ritter

Ray Dalio

Kevin Rudd

Zhao Tong

Stanislaw Koziej

Robert S. Ross

Charles C. Krulak

Michael C. Horowitz

Joseph S. Nye

Qin Gang

Frank Kendall III

Thomas L. Friedman

Marco J. Lyons

Global Times

"I argue that war is unlikely to occur due to the deep economic ties underlying the great power politics between the two countries."

"War with either [Russia or China] is neither inevitable nor imminent."

"As things currently stand, the US is not prepared to fight and win a war with China over Taiwan."

"A war between the US and China today is no more inevitable than was war between the rising US and the declining United Kingdom a century ago."

"[T]he tension between the United States and China will grow, and competition will intensify; it is inevitable. War, however, is not."

"War is a risk, but it is not inevitable."

"The risk of a military conflict is very serious."

"The smallest misstep by either side [Taipei and Beijing] could ignite a U.S.-China war."

"China is preparing for a war and specifically for a war with the United States."

"The most proximate potential timeframe for war is in the next two years."

"My gut tells me we [the US] will fight [with China] in 2025."

Will There Be a US-China War?

Benjamin Netanyahu

Ali Khamenei

Masoud Pezeshkian

Kelsey Davenport

Rafael Mariano Grossi

Seyed Hossein Mousavian

Polymarket

Tulsi Gabbard

Mehdi Hasan

Tamir Hayman

Kamal Kharazi

Barry R McCaffrey

Iran Watch

Hui Zhang

War Monitor

S.L. Kanthan

The New York Times

"No, we're not thinking about nuclear weapons."

"We have no intention of obtaining these weapons at all."

"Iran doesn't have nukes, isn't building nukes, and hasn't made the decision to build nukes."

"Iran doesn't have a bomb, and doesn't appear to be trying to make a bomb."

"They are definitely going for a nuclear weapon there is no question."

"They can have [a nuclear weapon], you know, in a matter of months, I would say."

Iran could produce a nuclear weapon "within a few months, less than a year."

Will Iran Possess a Nuclear Weapon?

Donald Trump

Elon Musk

Atlantic Council

YouGov

Lindsey Graham

Aleksandar Vucic

Patrick Sanders

MIRA Safety

Jack Keane

Jonathan Saxty

Denys Shmyhal

Tobias Ellwood

Michael C. Desch

Fyodor Lukyanov

Daily Mail

"Another world war is likely to occur within the next 5-10 years."

"We are sleepwalking our way into World War III with one foolish decision after the other."

The Russia-Ukraine conflict "could lead to World War III, very easily."

Will There Be World War III?

President Donald Trump announced on Wednesday that he has directed the Department of Defense to immediately resume nuclear weapons testing, marking a reversal of a policy in place since 1992 when former President George H.W. Bush issued a moratorium as the Cold War ended.</span

Daily Caller

BBC News

President Donald Trump announced on Wednesday that he has directed the Department of Defense to immediately resume nuclear weapons testing, marking a reversal of a policy in place since 1992 when former President George H.W. Bush issued a moratorium as the Cold War ended.

Trump stated that the United States possesses more nuclear weapons than any other country, though data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute indicates Russia currently maintains 5,459 nuclear warheads compared to the United States' 5,177 warheads.</span

New York Post

Trump stated that the United States possesses more nuclear weapons than any other country, though data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute indicates Russia currently maintains 5,459 nuclear warheads compared to the United States' 5,177 warheads.

The announcement came just hours before Trump's scheduled meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea, their first face-to-face encounter since 2019, aimed at addressing mounting trade tensions between the two nations.</span

The Telegraph

Guardian

The announcement came just hours before Trump's scheduled meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea, their first face-to-face encounter since 2019, aimed at addressing mounting trade tensions between the two nations.

Trump's directive followed recent Russian weapons tests, including President Vladimir Putin's announcement on Sunday of a successful test of the nuclear-powered Burevestnik cruise missile and on Wednesday of the Poseidon nuclear-capable underwater torpedo.</span

Kyiv Post

The Washington Times

Trump's directive followed recent Russian weapons tests, including President Vladimir Putin's announcement on Sunday of a successful test of the nuclear-powered Burevestnik cruise missile and on Wednesday of the Poseidon nuclear-capable underwater torpedo.

Arms control experts criticized the decision, with Daryl Kimball of the Arms Control Association stating it would take at least 36 months to resume contained underground nuclear tests at the former Nevada test site and warning the move could trigger a chain reaction of testing by adversaries.</span

Fox 59

Arms control experts criticized the decision, with Daryl Kimball of the Arms Control Association stating it would take at least 36 months to resume contained underground nuclear tests at the former Nevada test site and warning the move could trigger a chain reaction of testing by adversaries.

The last United States nuclear weapons test, code-named Divider, took place on September 23, 1992 at an underground facility in Nevada and was the 1,054th nuclear weapons test conducted by the United States according to Los Alamos National Laboratory.</span

The Washington Examiner

The last United States nuclear weapons test, code-named Divider, took place on September 23, 1992 at an underground facility in Nevada and was the 1,054th nuclear weapons test conducted by the United States according to Los Alamos National Laboratory.

U.S. to resume nuclear weapon tests

Nuclear weapons

United States of America

Trump Orders Resumption of Nuclear Testing After 33 Years

Trump Orders Resumption of Nuclear Testing After 33 Years

U.S.Trump toOrders resumeResumption nuclearof weaponNuclear testsTesting After 33 Years

The Controversies

Romney

Stavridis

Pifer

Alberque

Buchanan

Hill

Thornburg

Milley

Ritter

Krulak

Rudd

Nye

Tong

Friedman

III

Horowitz

Minihan

Khamenei

Pezeshkian

Hasan

Ritter

Monitor

Grossi

Netanyahu

YouGov

Musk

Trump

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Trump Orders Resumption of Nuclear Testing After 33 Years

U.S.Trump toOrders resumeResumption nuclearof weaponNuclear testsTesting After 33 Years

The Controversies

Romney

Stavridis

Pifer

Alberque

Buchanan

Hill

Thornburg

Milley

Ritter

Krulak

Rudd

Nye

Tong

Friedman

III

Horowitz

Minihan

Khamenei

Pezeshkian

Hasan

Ritter

Monitor

Grossi

Netanyahu

YouGov

Musk

Trump

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