Trump Orders Resumption of Nuclear Weapons Testing
The Spin
Anti-Trump narrative
Trump's reckless order threatens to unravel decades of nonproliferation efforts and spark a dangerous new arms race. The impulsive command, issued on social media during a diplomatic trip, echoes Cold War madness and ignores expert consensus that computer modeling renders actual detonations unnecessary. This dangerous escalation could trigger similar tests worldwide, shatter decades of international restraint and destroy the fragile framework that has prevented nuclear proliferation since the Cold War.
Pro-Trump narrative
Resuming nuclear testing is a necessary response to Russia and China's aggressive weapons programs that threaten American security. Putin's recent tests of exotic delivery systems and China's rapid expansion of its arsenal demand a strong deterrent signal. Maintaining nuclear parity protects the nation when adversaries refuse to respect arms control limits. This isn't provocation — it's responsibility. After voluntary halts left the U.S. vulnerable, resuming ensures credible deterrence, prevents conflicts and upholds U.S. dominance without apology.
Metaculus Prediction
There's a 7% chance that the U.S. will conduct a nuclear test explosion before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
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